Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Syria and Chemical Weapons: listen to the experts

By Elizabeth Kendal

On Monday 26 June 2017, the White House issued the following press statement:

The United States has identified potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime that would likely result in the mass murder of civilians, including innocent children.  The activities are similar to preparations the regime made before its April 4, 2017 chemical weapons attack.

As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.  If, however, Mr. Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price.


Coming, as it does, comes hot on the heels of President Trump’s visit to Riyadh and his speech to the Arab Islamic American Summit, this statement may indicate that the Trump administration is preparing to escalate the conflict in Syria.

See: Trump in Riyadh: A Message to Tehran,
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 29 June 2017

Now that President Trump has redrawn Obama’s Red Line, all we have to do is wait for the chemical attack that should deliver the Turkey-Arab Sunni Axis and its militant/jihadist proxies exactly what they so desperately want: US missile strikes against the Syrian government – only this time, far more devastating.

Like previous chemical attacks, this one too will be the work of Islamic jihadists – most probably foreigners who have no qualms about sacrificing Syrian nationals for what they regard as the greater Islamic good.

Anyone who finds this difficult to believe should consider the following expert analysis.

Under the heading: “Strategic Trajectories: Indicators of emerging patterns of global significance”, Issue 4,2017 of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy (D&FA, the magazine of the Washington-based International Strategic Studies Association) included a report entitled, “Attack on Syria: US Has Returned to ‘Business as Usual’.” 

Excerpt:


“US Pres. Donald Trump may, on April 7, 2017, have sacrificed the direction of his Presidency largely to calm domestic critics. He authorized the firing, by two US Navy destroyers in the Western Mediterranean, of 60 BGM-109B unitary warhead and BGM-109D cluster munition Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles (TLAM) at the Syrian Air Force base at al-Shayrat; 58 of the TLAMs hit designated targets. The incident may well be a strategically pivotal – domestically as well as internationally – as the decision in January 2002 by US Pres. George W. Bush to attack Iraq.” (emphasis in the original)

After examining various intended and unintended or unavoidable consequences of this action, D&FA examined the casus belli (the incident that provoked the attack).

Excerpts: 

“The US attack authorized by Pres. Trump was in response to an alleged attack by Syrian Air Force aircraft on the north-western Syrian town of Khan Sheikhoun, in southern Idlib province, supposedly using chemical-payload bombs. Despite US government claims of irrefutable evidence that the Syrian Arab Air Force had used chemical weapons, no evidence was provided that the Syrian Government was involved in the use of chemical weapons. The US claims, when examined, are all based on reports from partisan sources within the Syrian opposition and from the Turkish Government, and not a single piece of evidence was from direct reporting by any US military or intelligence officer with an understanding of chemical weapons.

“Site investigations of the alleged attacks, in fact, revealed cratering from BM21 122mm Grad rocket launcher munitions, not aircraft-delivered munitions. Several of BM21 systems – including long range versions – were brought in from Turkey to jihadists groups operating in Idlib province shortly before the alleged ‘Syrian attack’, roughly about the same time that the US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that the removal of Syrian Pres. Assad was not (then) a US priority.”

As D&FA notes, every time the US had indicated that the removal of Assad was no longer an absolute goal, “Turkey and its allies (including jihadist and ‘Syrian opposition’ groups) produce ‘evidence’ that Syria had used chemical weapons against its own people”. . .  What’s more, “The model for the release of such ‘evidence’ has been virtually identical in all cases . . .”

D&FA also notes that “Sarin (GB) has been the chemical weapon of choice by terrorist groups linked to Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the past in the Syrian conflict, not just the August 21, 2013, now-verified false-flag attack on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, by Saud-backed jihadists with the knowledge of the US Intelligence Community. . .

“Chemical analysis of the sarin residue found at Khan Sheikhoun indicated that it was made to the same recipe as the sarin used in the Ghouta attack in 2013, which has been absolutely and independently confirmed to have been used by Saudi-backed jihadis in that attack. It is explicitly not military-grade sarin and not the type which had been used by the Syrian Armed Forces before the internationally monitored disposal of Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles. . .

“It is probably that the Trump White House was aware that the evidence to support the claims of Syrian Government use of chemical weapons was questionable, tainted, and based on mere allegations. However, domestic political pressures in the US – coupled with a US media outcry at the reports – gave the President a chance to calm his critics at home by appearing strong internationally. . .”

Having covered asymmetric warfare and the August 2013 Ghouta false-flag chemical attack in my book, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East, I was not remotely surprise to see experts declaring the April 2017 Khan Sheikhoun attack a false-flag; indeed, as noted by D&FA, the pattern was "virtually identical".

After viewing the White House Intelligence Report (WHR) on Khan Sheikhoun, chemical weapons expert Theodore A. Postol (Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) penned a cursory assessment: “A Quick Turnaround Assessment of the White House Intelligence Report, Issued on April 11, 2017, About the Nerve Agent Attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria”. [Full Text - Addendum]

The photo that launched 60 cruise missiles 
In his report, which makes fascinating reading, Prof. Postol is scathing about the US assessment.  He comments that both the cratering and the way the munition was exploded indicate that, rather than being delivered from the air (in which case it would have exploded outwards, and above the ground) it is clear that the munition had been placed on the ground and that an external explosive device was detonated on top of it, crushing it inwards, and leaving a crater. This is just one of Prof. Postol’s many cursory observations.

Postol writes: “It is hard for me to believe that anybody competent could have been involved in producing the WHR and the implications of such an obviously predetermined result strongly suggests that this report was not motivated by a serious analysis of any kind.

“This finding is disturbing.  It indicates that the WHR was probably a report purely aimed at justifying actions that were not supported by any legitimate intelligence. . .

“On August 30, 2013, the White House produced a similarly false report about the nerve agent attack on August 21, 2013 in Damascus. This report also contained numerous intelligence claims that could not be true. . .

“I therefore conclude that there needs to be a comprehensive investigation of these events that have either misled people in the White House, or worse yet, been perpetrated by people seeking to force decisions that were not justified by the cited intelligence.”

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UPDATE: In April 2018, rebels claimed that civilians in Douma had been subjected to a chemical weapons attack. Images of gasping children foaming at the mouth were provided as 'evidence'.

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) was given complete access to the site, and took over 100 samples. It's report can be read here:
INTERIM REPORT OF THE OPCW FACT-FINDING MISSION IN SYRIA REGARDING THE INCIDENT OF ALLEGED USE OF TOXIC CHEMICALS AS A WEAPON IN DOUMA, SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC, ON 7 APRIL 2018
OPCW report: S/1645/2018,  6 July 2018

excerpt:
Analysis results
8.7 The results of analysis of the prioritised samples submitted to the designated laboratories were received by the FFM team on 22 May 2018. No organophosphorus nerve agents or their degradation products were detected, either in the environmental samples or in plasma samples from the alleged casualties.
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If the Trump administration has decided to enter the Syrian war on side of the regime change coalition (Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia), with the aim of pushing back against Iran, in defense of US allies Saudi Arabia and Israel, then it should stop playing games and just say so.

However, before the US Government starts firing missiles into Syria, it should also look forward and be open about the likely costs: Hezballah and Iranian Quds Force terror will surely strike back against US interests; Syria (presently secular) will become a potentially hostile Islamic state; and Syria’s Christians and Alawites will most surely face genocide.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).


Trump in Riyadh: a Message to Tehran


By Elizabeth Kendal
Religious Liberty Monitoring

On Saturday 20 May, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia for what was to be the first stop on a nine-day tour of the Middle East and Western Europe. The tour included visits to religious centres Jerusalem (Judaism and Christianity) and the Vatican (Roman Catholicism), but not Islam’s Mecca, as infidels are not permitted there.

During his two day visit to Riyadh, President Trump participated (albeit uncomfortably) in a ceremonial sword dance, and delivered a 34-minute speech to an Arab Islamic American Summit attended by the leaders of more than 50 Muslim nations.

In his speech, President Trump praised Sunni Arab leaders for their fight against terrorism, as if unaware that Saudi Arabia is not only one the world’s leading sponsors of international Islamic jihad, but the engine-room driving the “Wahhabisation” of Sunni Muslims worldwide.

He applauded Turkey for its hosting of refugees, as if unaware that Turkey’s President Recip Tayyap Erdogan – who is also one of the world’s leading sponsors of Islamic jihad – bears much of the responsibility for creating most of the refugees he is hosting, refugees he uses as pawns in foreign policy.

But the trump card in Trump’s speech was his singling out of Iran, which he lambasted as the cause of all regional instability through its sponsorship of international terrorism and fuelling of sectarian conflict and chaos. In this regard he made specific mention of Tehran’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who alone stood accused of “unspeakable crimes”.

While in Riyadh President Trump also brokered a deal to sell Saudi Arabia some $460 million worth of precision-guided munitions: nearly $110 billion immediately, and $350 billion over 10 years – as if unaware that Saudi Arabia is funnelling arms to all manner of Sunni jihadists in Syria, and is responsible for the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Yemen. [On Tuesday 13 June, the US Senate voted -- 53 to 47 -- in favour of supporting the arms deal.]

If President Trump thought his Iran-bashing would engender and consolidate Sunni unity, then he was gravely mistaken, and in truth, should have known better. Irrespective of whether the report that the Emir of Qatar had questioned the wisdom of isolating Iran was “fake news” or true, it detonated the tension in the Saudi-led bloc, exploding any pretense of unity.

[See also: “A Brief Guide to Middle Eastern Alliances”, by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 28 June 2017.]

President Trump’s performance, speech and weapons deal in Riyadh might not have engendered Sunni unity, but it did send a message to Tehran: that the US will stand with its allies (Saudi Arabia and Israel) to resist Tehran, whom it will fight -- albeit indirectly -- even by toppling the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.

It seems the conflict in Syria is about to move to a whole new level, and with it, the Christian crisis in the Middle East.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com 

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

A Brief Guide to Middle Eastern Alliances


By Elizabeth Kendal
Religious Liberty Monitoring

The complex, volatile and exceedingly fragile alliances between the Middle East’s powers and sects are unpacked in detail my book, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

What follows below is but a brief (and consequently simplistic) guide to the tangled web that is the Middle East.

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A BRIEF GUIDE TO MIDDLE EASTERN ALLIANCES
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Map by Elizabeth Kendal
click on map to enlarge
click here for pdf

At the heart of the Middle East is Mesopotamia: the land between the two rivers (the Tigris and the Euphrates). Comprising modern-day Syria and Iraq, this resource-rich Fertile Crescent has long been regarded as the cradle of civilisation. The homeland of ancient peoples – Armenians and Assyrians (also known as Syriacs and Chaldeans) – Mesopotamia is today (after numerous invasions, conquests and occupations) both a buffer zone and melting pot. Terrorism analyst Yossef Bodansky has labelled it, “the fertile crescent of minorities”.

The Mesopotamian heartland is surrounded by the region’s three imperial powers: TURKEY, ruled today by the Neo-Ottoman, Sunni Islamist regime of Recep Tayyip Erdogan; IRAN/Persia, ruled today by its revolutionary Shi’ite clerical regime; and the Wahhabist Kingdom of SAUDI ARABIA representing the Sunni Arabs. Today, as a century of Western hegemony comes to an end, these three imperial powers are struggling not only for hegemony over resource-rich Mesopotamia, but for leadership of the Muslim world.

The Middle East is divided along sectarian lines: between Islam’s two mains sects, the Sunnis (who follow Arab tradition/sunna in being led by a strongman) and the Shi’ites (who maintain that only a blood relative of Muhammad can lead the Muslims). Because Shia doctrine deligitimises all Sunni Caliphs, Sunni Islam has long sought to deligitimise Shi’ism as heresy, and demonise Shi’ites as rafida/rejectionists to be killed. Like the three imperial powers, these two Islamic sects are fighting for hegemony over resource-rich Mesopotamia and for leadership of the Muslim world.

The Middle East is divided along political lines: the north-south Turkey-Arab Sunni Axis comprising NATO-member Turkey and the US-allied Sunni Arabs; and the east-west, Iran-led, Shia-dominated Axis of Resistance (often called the Shia Axis) comprising Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and Lebanon’s Hezballah, along with various Sunni “resistance” groups such as Hamas and even al-Qaeda. These powers and groups are united by their commitment to “resisting” America’s and Israel’s presence in the Middle East. ISIS would be in this axis too if ISIS were not so inflexibly takfiri (anti-Shi’ite).

But nothing is ever that simple. Within these political axes the allied states routinely display widely diverging interests -- including economic interests -- and this is where it gets complicated.

Regarding the east-west Iran-led, Shia-dominated Shia Axis / Axis of Resistance.  This axis is not as united as it seems (or is made to seem). The interests of the Alawite-dominated secular government of Bashar al-Assad do not fully align with those of sectarian, revolutionary Shi’ite Tehran. The relationship between the Alawite-dominated government in Damascus and the clerical Shi’ite regime in Tehran is purely strategic. Like Baha’is and Ahmadiyyas, Alawites revere Muhammad as the founder of Islam, but follow as subsequent (and indeed more pacifist) prophet. Alawites follow Abū Shuʿayb Muḥammad ibn Nuṣayr (who diverged from Shia Islam), which is why they were historically known as Nusayris. The French convinced them to change their name to Alawites so as to hide their link to Nusayr while emphasising their link to Ali (Muhammad’s son-in-law, and the fourth Rightly Guided Caliph of Islam). A century on, the name Nusayr is being revived by fundamentalist Sunni jihadists.

Fundamentalist Islam regards those who follow a subsequent “prophet” as heretics deserving of death. Consequently, when the long-persecuted minority Alawites came to power in Syria (1971), they knew they needed allies. Cognizant of this and sensing an opportunity, Shi’ites in Lebanon and later revolutionary Tehran, proposed an alliance. Since then, the Alawite-led government in Damascus has provided Shi’ite forces with strategic depth, while Lebanese Shi’ites and Tehran provide Syria's minority Alawites with legitimacy and protection. For the Alawites this alliance is about little more than surviving as an existentially imperilled religious minority in a hostile region. For Hezballah and Tehran this alliance is all about geo-politics; they would sacrifice Assad in a flash if he resisted them. Of course Assad knows this, which is precisely why he is looking more to secular Russia (which happens to be pro-Israel) than to sectarian Shi'ite Tehran, which is not merely fighting in Syria, but working to Islamise and “Shi’itise” the Syrians, much to their horror.

Regarding the north-south, US-allied Turkey-Arab Sunni Axis.  This axis contains both pro and anti Muslim Brotherhood (MB) factions. Qatar and Erdogan’s Turkey are strongly pro-MB; while Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf monarchies, along with President al-Sisi’s Egypt, are strongly anti-MB.

Over recent years the anti-MB faction has grown increasingly frustrated with Qatar, due to the way Qatar uses its state-owned media company, al-Jazeera, as a tool of foreign policy and as a weapon with which it interferes in the affairs of other states. Indeed, al-Jazeera and the Muslim Brotherhood were central players in the misnamed “Arab Spring” which commenced in Tunisia in December 2010, and either toppled or threatened anti-MB regimes across the region throughout 2011 until it finally met its match in Damascus.

Even within the anti-MB faction, tensions exist between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Not only has Egypt steadfastly refused to send troops into Yemen in support of Saudi forces, but Egypt has also steadfastly rejected Saudi calls to send troops into Syria to help overthrow the Syrian government (which, like al-Sisi, is strongly anti-MB). In October 2016, Egypt voted in favour of a Russian resolution in the US Security Council which called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, particularly in Aleppo, and demanded that all parties prevent material and financial support from reaching groups associated with Al-Qaida including Jabhat al-Nusrah, or  ISIS (ISIL/Da’esh). While the resolution failed (4 in favour, 9 against, 2 abstentions), Saudi Arabia was furious with Egypt. Labelling Egypt’s support for the Russian resolution a “betrayal”, Saudi Arabia immediately suspended its monthly shipments of discounted oil to the cash-strapped state. [Shipments resumed in March 2017.]

Q) Why is anti-MB Saudi Arabia working alongside pro-MB Turkey and pro-MB Qatar to topple the anti-MB government in Syria? As usual, the answer is money, pipelines, oil and gas! In 2009, Damascus rejected a proposal to have a Qatar-Saudi Arabia-[Syria]-Turkey pipeline traverse its territory, thereby stifling Sunni plans to sell gas from the Persian Gulf to Europe. Then, in 2010, Damascus approved a proposal for the construction of an Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline that would transport gas from Persian Gulf to the Syrian coast for export to Europe. Can anyone think of a better reason for the US and NATO-backed Turkey-Arab Sunni Axis to covet regime change in Damascus?

Q) Apart from the threat Shia doctrine presents to the monarchy, why does Saudi Arabia feel so existentially threatened by Iran?  Again, the answer is money, pipelines, oil and gas, along with refineries and the status and power that comes from wealth!

Though Shi’ites comprise only around 10 percent of Muslims worldwide (Sunni Islam having been spread worldwide by nomadic peoples), in the Middle East they comprise around 50 percent. More critically, in the lands around the oil and gas rich Persian Gulf – and that includes Saudi Arabia’s resource-rich Eastern Province – Shi’ites comprise around 80 percent. If Iran ever decided annex Eastern Province – ostensibly on the pretext of rescuing/liberating its persecuted Shi’ite majority – the Saudis would be back in the desert with nothing but camels and sand. And while the Saudis would still be custodians of the Two Holy Mosques (a profitable business indeed!), it is doubtful they could hold that position for long if Iran was in control of all the oil and gas in the region. When we consider all this in the light of the fact that Saudi Arabia’s military is no match for Iran’s, it is easy to understand why the kingdom will do virtually anything to retain its US security umbrella. [See composite map at the top of this article.]

Q) What about the jihadists/terrorists? The jihadists – be they allied to al-Qaeda (which co-operates with Shi’ite Tehran) or ISIS (which refuses to; hence the split) – are all nothing but proxies. All jihadist groups of any significance are totally dependent on state backing, be it from NATO-member neo-Ottoman Islamist Turkey, US-allied Wahhabist Saudi Arabia, or Revolutionary Shi'ite Iran. Cognizant of this, Russia – which has been supporting the government of Syria, at its invitation – has been appealing from the very beginning for an end to the funding and arming of all Islamic militant groups; to no avail.

Q) What about the Christians? In Iraq, the displaced and destitute Assyrian remnant currently has security and liberty in Iraqi Kurdistan, for which they are phenomenally grateful. However, as they watch the Kurds occupy their lands -- remembering, as they do, the long history of massacres and genocides -- the Assyrians cannot help but harbour deep suspicions as to what Kurdish ambitions and intentions might actually entail.

In Syria, Christians  in government-controlled areas (including many thousands of IDPs) are not only protected, but they enjoy full religious liberty meaning they are free not only to worship but to minister to the wider community. In August 2015 the situation looked dire and had Russia not intervened then the government would surely have fallen. While Hezballah and Tehran are fighting in support of the Assad government, their foreign Shi’ite fighters have no love for Christians. Russia on the other hand, which not only has a long history of relations with and interests in secular Syria, also has an even longer history – a history of which it is very proud – as a protector of Eastern Christians.

Right across the Middle East it is overwhelming the case that Christians, feeling themselves betrayed and abandoned, are no longer looking to the West for help.

Q) What is the US doing in Syria? Having facilitated the rise of Iran (through the removal of Saddam Hussein and the “democratisation” of Shia-majority Iraq) the US is now desperate to rein it in, for an ascendant revolutionary Iran poses an existential threat to America’s allies (Saudi Arabia and Israel) and interests in the region.

Though still officially a US ally, Iraq is in reality lost, and is now little more than an Iranian vassal. Consequently the battle against Iran must be fought in Syria. Indeed, for the US, the war in Syria has always been about Iran.

Initially the US-Sunni strategy was to affect regime change in Damascus. Failing that, plan B has been to hammer a north-south Sunni bloc through the east-west Shia Axis to serve as a bulwark and base of operations against Iranian ambitions.

US troops patrol with fighters from
Maghaweir al Thowra (MaT)
(Revolutionary Commando Army) in Tanf.
Long War Journal (14 June)
Having established a garrison in Tanf (near the Syria, Iraq, Jordan border triangle) -- which is now protected on account of its being deemed a "deconfliction zone" -- the US-Turkey-Arab Axis is working with its Sunni militant proxies to establish a Sunni bloc that would stretch from the Gulf states and Jordan to Turkey through eastern Syria severing the Baghdad-Damascus Hwy, ostensibly under the guise of fighting Islamic State.

Of course this is something the Axis of Resistance powers will not tolerate. . .
. . . meaning this conflict is about to move to a whole new level.



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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com 


Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Syria: Blinkered in Aleppo

by Elizabeth Kendal - 24th August 2016
first published by Lapido Media, using the title "Aleppo Horror: Be careful whose side you're on"


Is the Western media blinkered in the midst of Aleppo horror?

FOR every bloodied child in rebel-held eastern Aleppo, there is a bloodied child in the government-held west of the war-torn city.

While an estimated 250,000 people remain in the rebel-held east, more than a million – including some 40,000 Christians – remain in the government-held west.

Churches – which operate freely in western Aleppo – describe the fighting in July as the worst they have ever experienced. On one day alone in mid July, some 250 rebel rockets rained down on Aleppo’s Christian quarter in the space of four hours.

Struggle

On 25 June, the Syrian Government launched the Castello Operation aimed at severing the rebel supply-line that runs through the north of the city en route to Turkey. Advancing under Russian air cover, Syrian forces approached the Castello Road from the north and from the south in a pincer manoeuvre.

source
By 26 July the rebel supply-line had been cut and two days later, rebel-held eastern Aleppo was besieged. The government opened three humanitarian corridors and promised four more.

The strategy is as old as war itself: cut the supply, besiege the city, increase the pressure and then open the vents to allow the escape of human shields and surrendering fighters.

Syrian forces liberated Homs by this means. Indeed, the US-backed, mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces recently liberated Manbij from Islamic State this way.

But if these rebels have learned anything it is how to fight asymmetrically. Aware of the propaganda value of human shields, the rebels convince them to stay.

In this they were aided by US Secretary of State John Kerry who echoed rebel claims that the humanitarian corridors ‘could potentially be a ruse’.  Consequently, only a few dozen families trickled out, with most opting to stay.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu described them as ‘hostages’, claiming they actually were unable to flee as the rebels had mined the humanitarian corridors and set snipers over them.

Had the family of five-year-old Omran Daqneesh – whose gut-wrenching image adorned newspapers across the globe last week -   escaped through the humanitarian corridors opened then he would not have ended up sitting bloodied in the back of an ambulance. Moreover his brother, Ali, 10, would not have died.

On 31 July, rebels belonging to Jaysh al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) launched a counter-offensive in south-western Aleppo, and by 6 August had broken through the siege. Western mainstream media cheered loudly for what the Institute for the Study of War described as ‘a major victory for al-Qaeda in Syria’.  On 7 August the Jaysh al-Fatah Operations Room released a statement declaring its intention to take the jihad into western Aleppo so as to capture the entire city.

Rebels

Jaysh al-Fatah is an al-Qaeda-led rebel coalition dominated by Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) and Ahrar al-Sham (a Salafist outfit modelled on the Taliban). Because the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition also includes a few much smaller US-backed militias, Jaysh al-Fatah profits from US weapons and US protection. To quote the Russian President, the ‘terrorists’ might be ‘rough and cruel people, but they’re in no way primitive or silly’.

The US has proscribed Jabhat al-Nusra (Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) as a terrorist organisation and agreed with Russia that it should be targeted. However, the US has not been able to convince its ‘good rebel’ proxies to disengage from their al-Qaeda affiliated allies - and this has hampered US anti-terror efforts.

Convincing US-backed rebels to disengage from Jaysh al-Fatah will be even more difficult now that Jaysh al-Fatah – which already holds the provincial capital of Idlib – has achieved such success in Aleppo. Islamic fighters – including displaced Islamic State jihadists – will be flocking to join the ranks of Jaysh al-Fatah now.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in western Aleppo is deteriorating rapidly.

Electricity is limited and, due to recent fighting, the flow of water and the main supply line have been cut, meaning water, food, fuel and medicines are all scarce.

As the rebels – around 95 percent of whom are foreign: Chechens, Saudis, Uzbeks, Chinese Uyhgurs among others – press in on western Aleppo, loyalist Syrians feel both the war and the prospect of slaughter inching closer.

‘Hope’

Despite the dire situation, western Aleppo’s churches of all denominations continue to serve and minister as funds are pumped in from churches and Christian advocacy groups on the outside.

Aleppo’s Saint Elias Cathedral (Orthodox) is caring for some 4,000 families recently displaced from southern Aleppo’s 1070 district – half of them Muslim, half of them Christian.

Similarly, Jesuit priest Fr Ziad Hilal said the churches are working to feed the hungry, regardless of their religion.

He said: ‘We have a big kitchen, this kitchen was sponsored by ACN (Catholic charity, Aid to the Church in Need) and other associations, and a lot of people come – we give about 7,500 meals every day. 

‘It is a lot, and the team is a Muslim and Christian team, and a lot of the people who benefit from these meals are Muslims. So, on one side things are dark, things are sad – on the other hand we see the activities of the Church there and how the people, especially the Christian associations, are helping. These provide a sign of hope. Our mission is important there.’

That Western mainstream media cares so little about the plight or fate of loyalist Syrians is nonsensical, for of all the groups in Syria today, loyalist Syrians (non-Islamist Muslims, Alawites and Christians) are the group with which most westerners would have the most in common. Instead, the media apparently cheers rebels who represent everything they abhor and would slaughter them in a heartbeat. If there is one thing al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) agree on, it is the treatment of infidels.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She publishes a weekly Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin to help facilitate strategic prayer; serves as the Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom; and is an Adjunct Research Fellow in the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at the Melbourne School of Theology.

Elizabeth Kendal has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).  

For more information see: www.ElizabethKendal.com


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Unprecedented?

The Plight of Minorities in the Middle East

On Sunday 26 July 2015, the Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) held a policy forum entitled, 'Policy Solutions for Persecuted Religious Minorities,' as part of the Australia Labor Party FRINGE Program, an event running alongside the Australian Labor Party (ALP) annual national conference in the Melbourne Convention Centre.

The forum, which was hosted by ACL Managing Director Lyle Shelton, featured (in order of appearance): Syrian journalist Johnny Abo, Elizabeth Kendal (religious liberty analyst, advocate and author), Chris Hayes (MP), His Grace Bishop Suriel of the Coptic Church and Maria Vamvakinou (MP). The purpose of the forum was to raise awareness of the plight of the Middle East's persecuted and existentially threatened religious minorities, and to propose policy solutions.

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Unprecedented? 
By Elizabeth Kendal
www.ElizabethKendal.com

Iraq’s last official census (1987) counted 1.4 million Assyrians (the indigenous people of Mesopotamia, who are Christian). But as Islamic zeal and Arab nationalism rose in the wake of Gulf War One (1991) persecution escalated and Christians with means emigrated.

By the time of the March 2003 US-led invasion, the Christian population of Iraq was estimated to have declined to between 800,000 and 1.2 million.

By 2010 -- church bombings, killings and kidnappings had caused the Christian population to decline to around 400,000. By this time, the Mandaeans of southern Iraq – a pacifist people who follow the teachings of John the Baptists – preaching righteousness and engaging in regular baptisms for the forgiveness of sins – had been essentially annihilated.

In December 2011 – as the last US troops prepared to withdraw – Archbishop Louis Sako of the Chaldean Catholic Church gave voice to the pervasive fear, that if the persecution continues with such intensity, “Iraq could be emptied of Christians”.

In Australia, the Assyrian Universal Alliance (AUA) published an open letter to the Prime Minister, appealing for help from the Australian government. The letter included this grave warning:“The slow genocide of the indigenous Assyrians, also known as Chaldeans and Syriacs, in Iraq now sits at the tipping point of a relentless and inexorable genocide, leading to ethnic extinction.” 
After detailing the destruction of churches, the targeted violent persecution of Christians and the desperate flight of more than 600,000 Assyrians since 2003, the AUA letter highlighted the saddest and most shameful aspect of all:“Despite the scale of this human tragedy and the drastic displacement of the Assyrians, the International Community’s response has been almost non-existent and the displaced Assyrians have been left to their demise.”

In March 2013 – on the 10-year anniversary of the US invasion – Canon Andrew White (a.k.a. as the Vicar of Baghdad) estimated that a mere remnant of 200,000 Christians remained – with most hunkered down in Nineveh Province – in the provincial capital Mosul, and in Iraq’s largest Assyrian city, Bakhdida (a.k.a. Qaraqosh).

In June 2014 – ISIS swept into Nineveh, seizing Mosul in a blitzkrieg as tens of thousands of Iraqi security personnel (Shi’ites) fled for their lives, unwilling to defend the city, especially in the face of widespread Sunni support for ISIS.

On Friday 18 July 2014, ISIS – now known as Islamic State (IS) – issued an ultimatum: Christians would have until midday of the next day to either convert to Islam, submit as dhimmis (second-class citizens) and pay the jizya (protection money) – otherwise they would “face the sword”.

Mosul’s remnant Christians departed, causing Archbishop Sako to lament, “For the first time in the history of Iraq, Mosul is now empty of Christians.”

In August 2014, IS drove the Assyrians from Qaraqosh and totally ethnically-religiously cleansed the entire Nineveh Plain. The plight of the Yazidis stranded on Mt Sinjar captured the attention of the world. Some 3000 women were taken captive, to be sold as sex-slaves.

Patriarch Louis Sako, issued a statement on 10 Aug 2014, in which he warned that Iraq’s Christians “are facing a human catastrophe and risk a real genocide”.

Lamenting that all the churches from Mosul to the border of Iraqi Kurdistan were now deserted and desecrated, he added, “The level of disaster is extreme.”

In SYRIA meanwhile
– where religious minorities makes up around 25 percent (12% Alawite, 10% Christian) the Syrian government stands as the last line of defence preventing a genocide of the minorities. The threat was made clear from the outset, for when the banned Syrian Muslim Brotherhood led a “day of rage” in the “Arab Spring” of April 2011, protesters were heard chanting in the streets, “Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave”.

As Syria was flooded with international jihadis, the threat became existential.

In March 2013, the northern city of Al-Raqqa became the first provincial capital to fall under rebel control. In Jan 2014, ISIS and al-Nusra split – with al-Nusra concentrating on the Battle for Aleppo, and ISIS assuming full control of Al-Raqqa where they enforced Sharia law without compromise, without mercy. 

In March 2015, Idlib became the second provincial capital to fall under rebel control after a rebel coalition led by al-Qaeda’s al-Nusra, but including several FSA battalions, stormed the city.

Everywhere the rebels have gained control Christians have been forced to flee – many have perished.

In February 2015 – IS fighters raided a string of Assyrian villages along the Khabour River in north-eastern Haseka, displacing thousands. Some 230 Assyrians remain in IS captivity to this day.

------------------------------
More than 250,000 Armenians
were massacred in the
pogroms of 1894-96.
Armenian Genocide Museum

How many times have you heard it said that the current crisis in the Middle East is “unprecedented”?

Well – I’d like to suggest that it is not the least bit unprecedented

Read up on the last century of the Caliphate: that is, through the 19C to the Armenian Genocide [1915-23]. The threat to minorities is not unprecedented. We have seen all this before!

Read up on the influence of the rabid anti-Semite Haj Amin al-Husseini the Mufti of Jerusalem, who aligned with the Nazis and incited violence against Jews throughout the Balkans and the Middle East. Today the Arab lands are proudly judenrein (free of Jews). So even the elimination of an entire ethno-religious group would not be unprecedented.

Today we lament Western silence in the face of genocide. But this too is not unprecedented. Western governments have routinely abandoned the minorities to their fate and stood idly by in silence as they were driven from their homes and slaughtered.

Why?
  1. Western powers have long believed their “vital interests” are best served by maintaining pro-Arab, pro-Muslim policies.
  2. Western powers have great faith in democracy (reduced these days to elections and majority rule). The trouble is, as Western efforts to democratise the Middle East have converged with Islamic revival, the result, for the minorities, has been catastrophic.
Yes – minority rule might be brutal – but a minority cannot eliminate a majority.

---------------------

I believe the Australia government should stand with the persecuted and maintain a foreign policy committed to advancing religious liberty and aiding vulnerable, existentially imperiled minorities.

Concerning those [existentially imperiled minorities] who want to stay in their homeland: I believe we should help them by providing aid directly to them, and by working with regional governments to secure safe havens – particularly a safe haven in the Nineveh Plain, the historic homeland of the Assyrian nation. If safe havens could be made secure – then displaced families could at least get on with educating their children.

Concerning those [existentially imperiled minorities] who just want to leave, because they desperately want their children to have a future: I believe we should help them too by guaranteeing them places in Australia.
Let’s encourage our government to do something really unprecedented and for once, put the plight of existentially threatened minorities ahead of economics, geo-politics and political correctness.

--------------------------


Elizabeth Kendal is the author of
Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today
(Deror Books, Dec 2012).


Thursday, July 2, 2015

Assyria Day 2015: 'After Saturday Comes Sunday'


The Following address entitled, “After Saturday Comes Sunday” (Arabic: Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad) was delivered in Sydney, Australia, on Assyria Day 28 June 2015.

Organised by Sydney’s “Young Assyrians”, the theme of this year's national Assyria Day Conference was the Assyrian nation’s demand for an Autonomous Administrative Region in the historic Assyrian homeland of the Nineveh Plains, northern Iraq. For more details see: Assyrian Universal Alliance

-------------------------------------------------

“After Saturday Comes Sunday”
Arabic: Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad

Assyria Day, 28 June 2015.
Elizabeth Kendal


There is a popular Arabic war cry which never fails to make the blood of Middle Eastern Christian run cold. Whether Muslims are spray-painting it on walls, whispering it in ears or chanting it in the streets, “After Saturday comes Sunday” (Arabic: Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad”) is issued as a threat – a warning to Christians – that after the Muslims have dealt with the Jews (who worship on Saturday), then they will deal with the Christians (who worship on Sunday).

It should be clear by now that this is no idle threat.

What I would like to do on this Assyria Day, is look at
(1) how this threat has been playing out in Iraq;
(2) how this threat has been playing out in Syria.|
 THEN
(3) I will look at the overall geo-political situation in the Middle East; and
 LASTLY
(4) we will turn our attention to the Cross of Jesus Christ; and there, at the Cross, we will turn that threat on its head.

IRAQ

In 586 BC, King Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon conquered Jerusalem, carrying much of the Judean population into exile in Babylonia, the land of the Chaldeans. While some Jews returned to Judea with Zerubbabel, Ezra and Nehemiah seventy years later, and set about rebuilding the nation, others remained in Mesopotamia where they had put down roots, assimilated and grown comfortable.

In 1906 an Ottoman census counted 256,000 Jews in the Ottoman vilayets (provinces) of Basra, Baghdad and Mosul (which together comprise modern-day Iraq).

Incited by the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Mohammed Effendi Amin el-Husseini, Arab anti-Semitism escalated through the 1920s – 30s – and 40s. Violent persecution escalated and by 1949, half the Jewish community had left.

In his book, ‘Banking on Baghdad,’ journalist and author Edwin Black writes: “An estimated 130,000 Jews lived in the Iraq of 1949, half of whom resided in Baghdad.  The Baghdad Chamber of Commerce listed 2,430 member companies. A third were Jewish . . . Jewish firms transacted 45 percent of the exports and nearly 75 percent of the imports. A quarter of all Iraqi Jews worked in transportation, such as railways and port administration. . .’ As Black makes clear – Iraq’s economy was largely dependent on Jews.

The anti-Jewish pogroms reached their peak in the early 1950s. Black writes, “Between January 1950 and December 1951, Israel airlifted, bussed, or otherwise smuggled out 119,788 Iraqi Jews – all but a few thousands. Within those two years, Iraq – to its national detriment – had excised one of its most commercially, industrially, and intellectually viable groups, a group that for 2,600 years had loyally seen the three provinces of Mesopotamia as their chosen place on earth.”

By 2004 only 35 Jews remained in Iraq; by 2008 there were ten, with eight of those living in Baghdad under the care of the Rev. Canon Andrew White (pictured) who described their situation as “more than desperate.”

There was alarm in 2011, after WikiLeaks published diplomatic Cables that identified Iraq’s last seven Jews. In October 2014, Rev Canon Andrew White was evacuated from Baghdad on the advice of the Archbishop of Canterbury as his high profile made him an attractive target. Six Jews remained.

After Saturday comes Sunday

Long centred around its historic capital of Nineveh, the Assyrian nation is indigenous to Upper Mesopotamia. Tradition has it that the Assyrians began worshiping YWHW (Yahweh) the God of Israel after the prophet Jonah preached there sometime between 780-755 BC. Assyrians subsequently developed close ties with Jerusalem, and watched with interest as the scandal of Jesus of Nazareth who claimed to be the Christ (the Messiah) played out. When news arrived in Nineveh that Jesus had risen from the dead and had been seen by many before ascending to heaven, the Assyrians believed that Jesus was indeed the Messiah of whom the scriptures spoke. Once an imperialistic regional superpower, Assyria became a great missionary power, spreading the gospel through Persia, Central Asia and as far east as China.

Then, in the 7th C came Islam, and the result was subjugation. Then, in the 14th C came Timur (Timur the Lame / Tamerlane), and the result was total decimation. From the 7th C until today – Assyrian history has been marked by repression and persecution; replete with massacres and genocides.

Iraq’s last official census (1987) counted 1.4 million Assyrians. But as Islamic zeal and Arab nationalism rose in the wake of Gulf War One (1991), Christians with means emigrated.

By the time of the March 2003 US-led invasion, the Christian population of Iraq was estimated to be between 800,000 and 1.2 million.

After the US occupation, sectarian killings, church bombings, ethnic-religious cleansing and targeted terrorism drove multitudes of Christians from their homes, especially from the provinces of Basra and Baghdad. Christians fled north, where they hunkered down in the ancient Assyrian heartland and homeland of the Nineveh Plain, mostly around the cities of Mosul, and Bakhdida / Qaraqosh.

But Nineveh was not secure. While the US “Surge” of 2007 did kill many al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists throughout the central provinces of Anbar, Baghdad and Diyala, many more had simply relocated north to Mosul, which subsequently became known as al-Qaeda’s base in Iraq.
From 2008, attacks against Mosul’s churches, assassinations of its Christian leaders and violent persecution of its Christian communities skyrocketed. Believers were extorted for jizya (protection money) and forced to submit to Sharia law.

By 2010, a remnant of around 400,000 Christians remained.

As persecution and threat escalated throughout the country, masses of Christians fled; with thousands finding refuge in Assad’s Syria. Those who remained suffered harassment and intimidation; not only from al-Qaeda, but from Muslim neighbours who supported the jihad.

The persecution went largely unremarked in mainstream media and political discourse, because attacks on Christians don’t pose a threat to the delicate and volatile sectarian situation in Baghdad, so they are generally deemed to be of no strategic significance.

In December 2011, as the last US troops prepared to withdraw thousands of Muslims emerged from Friday prayers across Nineveh to attack Christian communities – destroying businesses deemed “haram” (forbidden in Islam) [for example: licensed grocery stores].

David William Lazar of the American Mesopotamian Organization described the situation as “a big mess.” When asked who would be there to ensure the safety of Christians he answered, “Basically, no one.”

Long time Religious Liberty champion U.S. Congressman Frank Wolf (R-Va.) commented: “The Iraqi Christians . . . are living in fear. Now with the forces leaving . . . I think the Iraqi Christians are going to go through a very, very difficult time.”

The Director of the Christian Defense Coalition expressed concern that unless the situation is addressed “the public expression of Christianity will be exterminated. America,” he said, “must realise, this horrible extermination of Christians is directly related to our failure in ensuring their safety. It is a tragedy that America's involvement in Iraq did not bring liberation for Christians but brutality, oppression and possible extinction. We cannot abandon them. We must do better.”

Archbishop Louis Sako of the Chaldean Catholic Church gave voice to the pervasive fear, that if the persecution continues with such intensity, “Iraq could be emptied of Christians”.

[Those quotes are all available on the Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin (RLPB) 138: “Propaganda versus Reality” (13 Dec 2011).]

In Australia, the Assyrian Universal Alliance (AUA) published an open letter to the Prime Minister, appealing for help from the Australian government. Written by Hermiz Shahen, and dated 12 December 2011 (same day Obama and al-Makili met in Washington to congratulate themselves for having defeated al-Qaeda and created a model democracy) the letter included this grave warning:

“The slow genocide of the indigenous Assyrians, also known as Chaldeans and Syriacs, in Iraq now sits at the tipping point of a relentless and inexorable genocide, leading to ethnic extinction.”

After detailing the destruction of churches, the targeted violent persecution of Christians and the desperate flight of more than 600,000 Assyrians since 2003, the AUA letter highlighted the saddest and most shameful aspect of all:

“Despite the scale of this human tragedy and the drastic displacement of the Assyrians, the International Community’s response has been almost non-existent and the displaced Assyrians have been left to their demise.” 

Yet again, the Assyrian nation has been betrayed and abandoned.

In March 2013 – on the 10-year anniversary of the US invasion – Canon Andrew White estimated that a mere 200,000 Christians remained in Iraq.

In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham /Syria (ISIS: formerly ISI, subsequently IS) stormed into Nineveh Province, capturing its capital Mosul in a blitzkrieg. Some 1,000 Christian families fled for their lives.

AINA
On Friday 18 July 2014, ISIS (now IS) issued an ultimatum. Christians would have until midday of the next day to either convert to Islam, submit as dhimmis (subjugated, second-class citizens without rights) and pay the jizya (protection money) – otherwise they would “face the sword”.

This was no idle threat; ISIS had already marked the homes of the last remaining Christians with a large red Arabic letter “n” (pronounced noon) for “Nasrani (i.e. Christian – one who follows the Nazarene) and acquired their homes as “property of the Islamic State”.

By the end of the day, all but the most infirm and disabled Christians were departing. Forced to forfeit their homes, they were then met at checkpoints on the roads out of the city by ISIS militants who robbed them of their cash, gold, jewelry and passports – everything but the clothes on their backs.

Patriarch Louis Sako lamented: “Christian families are on their way to Dohuk and Irbil. For the first time in the history of Iraq, Mosul is now empty of Christians.”

Then on 6 August 2014, IS forces overran Bakhdida / Qaraqosh.

Patriarch Louis Sako, issued a statement in which he warned that Iraqi Christians “are facing a human catastrophe and risk a real genocide”.

Lamenting that all the churches from Mosul to the border of Iraqi Kurdistan were now deserted and desecrated, he added, “The level of disaster is extreme.”

SYRIA

As in Iraq, Judaism has been in Syria for millennia.

In Syria, as in Iraq, violent Arab anti-Semitism escalated through the 1920s – and 30s and 40s – and violent attacks on Jews became commonplace.

In 1947, Syria was home to some 40,000 Jews. After the United Nations voted in November 1947 to partition Palestine, Arab mobs rioted in Aleppo, attacking and devastating the 2,500-year-old Jewish community. Scores of Jews were killed and more than 200 homes, shops and synagogues were destroyed. Thousands of Jews fled Syria for refuge in Israel.

After Israel declared independence May 1948, another wave of violence erupted. Syrian Jews were beaten and killed while their homes were looted and burned. Jewish institutions were closed, holy books were burned, businesses were boycotted and properties were seized. Jews were left destitute.

To prevent Syria’s Jews escaping to Israel where they could strengthen the Israeli state and even become Israeli soldiers, Syria shut the doors, officially prohibiting Jewish emigration. However, that period was so chaotic and the Syrian regime so unstable, Jews continued to escape illegally into Lebanon and Turkey.

By the time the borders were sealed shut in 1958, only around 5,000 Jews remained – approximately 3,000 in Damascus, 1,500 in Aleppo, and another 500 or so in the town of Qamishli, (in the north-east, near the northern Syrian border with Turkey). Regulations were repressive and persecution was severe.

In 1967, Arabs lost the Six Day War, and in Syria local Jews paid the price – targeted with wholesale vigilante and state terror. Ultimately the only way to survive was to pay an exorbitant jizya; but even then, security was tenuous.

It was during that time that Canadian Jewish couple Rubin and Judy Feld took up the cause of Syrian Jewry. By late 1972, the Felds were in regular communication with a Rabbi in Damascus. When Rubin Feld (40) died of heart attack in June 1973, Judy devoted herself to the work of facilitating the rescue of Syrian Jews. Her first rescue was of a rabbi from Aleppo – 1977.

In April 1992, the Syrian government lifted the travel ban and the New York Syrian Jewish community organised a rescue operation through which several Jews were secretly airlifted out of Syria.

Judy Feld-Carr continued rescuing Syrian Jews until September 2001; her mission only ended because all the Jews who wanted to leave had left. By that time she had facilitated the rescue of 3,228 Syrian Jews.

In September 2013, as war raged in Syria, Sam Sokol reported for the Jerusalem Post that Syria’s remnant Jews – numbering about fifty – were hunkered down in central Damascus under the protection of President Bashar al-Assad. “The average age there is around 45 or 50” he said. “There are no more youths under that age to my knowledge. No youths, no children.” In other words, the end of the Jewish existence in Syria was in sight, all but guaranteed.

By 2014 there were as few as eleven Syrian Jews left in Syria. These were Jews who had chosen to stay and die in their homeland.

After Saturday comes Sunday

As in Iraq, Christianity, has been in Syria for some 2000 years – in fact it was in Antioch in Syria that the “disciples” (followers of Jesus) were first called Christians (Acts 11:26).

Through 2011-12, northern Syria filled with jihadists who flooded over the Turkish border. In 2012 the Syrian Arab Army was withdrawn from the North-East so it could be concentrated in the north-south Damascus-Aleppo corridor, leaving the Kurds to fight the influx of jihadists.

On Thursday 17 January 2013, some 300 jihadists linked to al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra crossed the Turkish border with three tanks to fight the Kurds in Ras al-Ayn in NE Syria’s al-Hasakah governorate. No longer safe in Hasakah, Assyrian refugees from Iraq fled back into totally insecure neighouring Nineveh.

In March 2013, Al-Raqqa fell to rebel forces, becoming the first provincial capital fully under rebel control. Within months, the jihadists had split: with al-Nusra pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda central’s Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the young-guns of ISIS remaining loyal to al-Baghdadi.  As al-Nusra devoted itself to the battle for Aleppo, ISIS consolidated its power-base in al-Raqqa. 

After seizing Mosul (June 2014) and running a bulldozer through the Iraq-Syria border – declaring an end to Sykes-Picot – ISIS moved to expand into Syria’s Deir-ez-Zor (east) and Hassekeh (north east).

In February 2015, ISIS fighters raided the 35 Assyrian villages along the Khabour River Hassekah. Some 230 Assyrian civilians remain in ISIS captivity to this day.

In March 2015 – an al-Nusra-led jihadi alliance known as Jayesh al Fateh (Army of Conquest) – seized control of Idlib, making it the second Provincial Capital to fall under rebel control. Rebels celebrated by burning the Syrian flag.

In subsequent weeks Jayesh al Fateh not only consolidated in Idlib, but cut the strategic M4 HWY which links Latakia to Aleppo.

On 20 May 2015, ISIS captured Palmyra, abducted a priest from Qaryatayn and won a battle against Hamas in Yarmouk, a suburb of Damascus just 8 km south of the CBD.  It seems that ISIS is actually being squeezed towards Damascus. Doubtless plans are afoot to cut the M5 HWY which links Damascus to Homs and the north.

Meanwhile in the north, the Battle or Aleppo is heating up, led by the militant/terrorist proxies of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The war will remain asymmetric (with the SAA as the stronger force) as long as the SAA controls the skies. This is why the rebels / jihadists / terrorists are calling for air support (preferably US air support).

The Syrian government is the last line of defense for Syria’s religious minorities, including Christians. Should the government fall, then genocide is all but guaranteed. After all, this is precisely what Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood promised in April 2011 when its followers took to the streets chanting, “Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave.”

That regime-changers Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia find that acceptable is unsurprising. That the US and the West might regard it as a price it is willing to pay, is flabbergasting.

These are pivotal days in Syria.

The Overall Geo-Political Situation in the Middle East

“In the end,” wrote former US National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, “peace can be achieved only by hegemony or by balance of power.”

Well -- not only has a century of Western hegemony come to an end, but so too has the balance of power dynamic that existed through much of the 20th century – largely through Sykes-Picot (which kept the Arabs divided), and the empowerment of minorities (Sunnis in Iraq and Alawites in Syria). As hegemony has crashed and the balance of power has been overturned - the region has dissolved into chaos.

Rushing to fill the power vacuum are the region’s three historic imperialistic powers: the Persians, the Arabs, and the neo-Ottoman Turks. Also in a struggle for hegemony are the region’s two main Islamic sects, Sunnis and the Shi’ites. Complicating matters – we also have two political axis: the US-aligned Turkey-Arab-Sunni Axis (divided between pro-anti MB factions) and the Iran-led, Shi'ite dominated Axis of Resistance (which includes several Sunni 'resistance' groups such as Hamas).

This is what it looks like on the map.


The struggle will be furious for the stakes are high, for these groups are fighting not merely for hegemony over Mesopotamia, but over the whole Middle East and Muslims.

And as the old African proverb goes, “When Elephants fight – it’s the grass that suffers”. [Ndovu wawili wakisongana, ziumiazo ni nyika (Swahili)]

BUT Christians are far more than mere collateral damage, for they are being targeted. What’s more, they are being targeted not merely for subjugation and exploitation, but for elimination!

And unlike pre-WWI jihads, this 21stC jihad is not being fought with swords or even rifles, but with automatic firearms, tanks, US-made armor-piercing guided rockets, and by jihadists whose friends have chemical and nuclear weapons. This raises the stakes to a whole new level. Also raising the stakes is the jihadists’ ability to exploit mainstream media and communication technologies, especially social media, to propagandise and recruit on a global scale.

Geo-politically, the whole region is in flux. We have decades of turmoil ahead of us and it is not going to be pretty.

And lest we forget, the elimination of an entire ethnic-religious group is not without precedent; the Arab states have already been “cleansed” of Jews. Fortunately the Jews had a safe-haven – their ancestral homeland, Israel – which rescued them and absorbed them, giving them hope and a future.

It is possible that Christianity could be eliminated from the Middle East.

And the only thing necessary for this to be achieved is that we do nothing.

Let’s turn our attention to the Cross of Jesus Christ. 

Have you ever imagined how terrifyingly awful that crucifixion Friday must have been for those who had believed and invested so much in Jesus?


For the followers of Jesus, that Friday was the day when all their hopes, dreams and aspirations were violently, profoundly and humiliatingly dashed, smashed and obliterated. What were they to make of it? How could that weak, submissive, defenseless victim of injustice be the Messiah? That beaten, lacerated, bleeding and broken victim of savagery who just meekly submitted “like a lamb that is led to the slaughter,” (Isaiah 53) – mocked, pierced (Psalm 22) how could he be Israel’s Saviour? What were Jesus’ followers to make of it?

Was Jesus a fraud or was he a madman? Had his followers been deceived, conned, led astray like fools? Would they now be laughed at or pitied as victims of a ridiculous scam? Or worse; had the Messiah indeed come and failed? Had the Christ been defeated? Had God’s eternal plan of redemption come unstuck? Had the world and devil triumphed over God’s anointed?

To make things worse, after Friday came Saturday. Yes, life would go on. Humiliation, confusion, darkness and profound emptiness, even anger seemed destined to continue without relief.  As far as Jesus’ followers could see, that Saturday was to be first day of the rest of their lives without Jesus.

And just as the deadly cross of Friday extinguished life, the deathly silence of Saturday devoured hope.  What were his faithful disciples to make of it? What were his followers to do? On Friday, before breathing his last, Jesus had declared, “It is finished.” On Saturday, as hopelessness reigned, Jesus’ followers must surely have thought: “It is finished indeed!”

But it wasn’t – was it?   . . . because ‘After Saturday came Sunday’ and what happened on Sunday changed everything – so much so that history revolves around it.

Caravaggio
We even see it in the Old Testament prophetic texts – Isaiah 52:13 to 54:3 and Psalm 22 – which start with the horrific crucifixion and death of the Lamb of God – but then everything changes – and salvation flows to the ends of the earth thereby fulfilling God’s promise to Abraham, “in you all the families of the earth shall be blessed”.

Blessed through the sacrifice of the Christ? Who’d have thought it? God – whose ways are not our ways and whose thoughts are not our thoughts (Isaiah 55:8-9) – he thought it.

The Cross (Friday through Sunday; crucifixion, grave, resurrection) is more than an event and even more than atonement. The Cross is revelation: that is it reveals something to us of how God works.

God does not sit on his comfortable heavenly throne firing rocket at his enemies. While he is indeed a super-power, that is not his way. Rather God comes and enters hostile territory himself, not only to subvert evil -- defeating it from within, as he did with sin and death -- but to work it for good in fulfillment of promise.

Theologian, Professor Carl R. Trueman of Westminster Theological Seminary, notes: “If the cross of Christ, the most evil act in human history [crime for which all who have ever sinned are guilty], can be in line with God’s will and be the source of the decisive defeat of the very evil that caused it, then any other evil can also be subverted to the cause of good.

“Indeed, if God can take the greatest of evils and turn it to the greatest of goods, then how much more can he take the lesser evils which litter human history, from individual tragedies to international disasters, and turn them to his good purpose as well.”

Precisely because after Saturday (the day of the grave) comes Sunday (the day of resurrection and vindication), the Church can look directly into any crisis with realism and honesty, and call it what it is – horrific, evil, wicked – and still find God at work amidst the suffering.

As “The Nation of the Cross” (as ISIS likes to call us), we know that because God works through affliction, appearances can be deceptive. As 'the Nation of the Cross', we know that even in the midst of darkness and confusion, when God seems absent and all seems hopeless and we can barely see through our tears or breathe through our grief; even when it appears that the “world” has won and the devil reigns supreme, God is at work -- just as he was on that first Easter. God is busy subverting evil, redeeming it as blessing in fulfillment of promise.

God moves in a mysterious way his wonders to perform;
He plants his footsteps in the sea and rides upon the storm.
(William Cowper, 18thC)

So, just because Muslims deliver “After Saturday comes Sunday,” (Arabic: Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad) to Christians as a threat, doesn’t mean Christians have to receive it that way.

For when Christians feed Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad through a theology of the Cross something wonderful happens --- the threat gets lost in translation.

Sunday is up on us alright – and it is not the Sunday those Muslims are dreaming of.

I’d like to conclude – with a little story that I find incredibly moving.

One Sunday in Tel Isqof 

Tel Isqof is an Assyrian village in the north of the Nineveh Plains. On 7 August 2014, Islamic State jihadists seized Tel Isqof sending some 7,000 Assyrian Christians fleeing for their lives.
Kurdish pershmerga launched a counter offensive and by 17 August had driven the jihadists back.  Though Tel Isqof had been liberated (and looted) it was far too dangerous to return to as Islamic State fighters still controlled the surrounds, and routinely attempted forays into the town.

On Sunday 9 November 2014, something happened in Tel Isqof that was certainly symbolic and possibly even prophetic. Fr. Paul Thabit Mekko, a displaced Assyrian priest holed up in Arbil, tells what happened:

“A group of young men, now refugees in Kurdistan, wanted to go there [to Tel Isqof] with a priest for a few hours, with the intent to open the church, ring the bells and celebrate mass. After the liturgy they returned to the north, to the places where they are currently living as refugees. It was a way of saying that we do not abandon our lands, and we hope to return to our homes and our churches soon.” 

I would like to say that, just as ISIS silenced the bells and removed the cross in order to make a statement (Christianity is finished – dead and buried), those young Assyrian Christian men rang the bells and restored the cross to its rightful place atop the dome of the church overlooking the Nineveh Plain in order to make a statement of their own – a statement of faith.

It might seem like Easter Saturday – a day of fear, grief, hopelessness – but Sunday (resurrection, vindication) is coming. I have no doubt that God has preserved an Assyrian remnant precisely because he intends to restore them to their lands, in what will be a reverse exodus. For God has promised:

 In that day there will be a highway from Egypt to Assyria, and Assyria will come into Egypt, and Egypt into Assyria, and the Egyptians will worship with the Assyrians.

In that day Israel will be the third with Egypt and Assyria, a blessing in the midst of the earth, whom the Lord of hosts has blessed, saying, “Blessed be Egypt my people, and Assyria the work of my hands, and Israel my inheritance.”
(Isaiah 19: 23-24 ESV)

When I speak to Western/Anglo churches about this, I ask them, “Do you want to be part of this great work of God?” And when they say yes, I say, “Then die to self and follow Christ there.”

Some Christians and churches say, “Oh but this is so unprecedented”, as if that is an excuse for disengagement. But this persecution is not unprecedented -- it has been going on since the birth of the Church. And who better to testify to that than the Assyrian nation?

What is unprecedented however – thanks to the development of information and communication technologies – is the ability of the Church to be globally aware and globally connected – so that any church today can be aware of suffering on the other side of the world, even as it unfolds – and respond immediately – for the saving of many lives.

These are days of unprecedented opportunity for the Church to truly demonstrate what it means to be One Body in Christ – a holy nation – a people (as we are described in 1 Peter 2:9). This is the day for active engagement in faith.

And to you – my dear Assyrian brothers and sisters – I say: fix your eyes upon Jesus – and remember the CROSS! Never give up, never lose hope. He is faithful who promised.

AND whenever anyone tries to terrorise you with Ba'd as-sabt biji yom al-ahad -  “After Saturday comes Sunday” -- remember God’s Easter paradigm and say, “Yes! After Saturday comes Sunday indeed!”

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Elizabeth Kendal is currently writing a book under the working title: “After Saturday Comes Sunday”: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East. The above Assyria Day message draws largely on material from chapters one and ten of that work.
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Elizabeth Kendal is the author of 

She also writes a weekly Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin (RLPB), to facilitate strategic prayer for the persecuted Church.