The Special Tribunal for Lebanon -- the International Court set up in May 2007 by the UN Security Council to investigate the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri and 22 others -- will soon deliver its findings. Expectations are running high that the tribunal will indict Hezballah, Syria and heads of Lebanon's intelligence agencies.
Reports and movements on the ground in Lebanon indicate that if the tribunal does indict Hezballah, then Hezballah will stage a coup or a policy-reversing blitzkeig similar to the one it staged in Beirut in May 2008 in which it laid siege to the homes of Sunni leader Saad Hariri (son of the assassinated Rafiq Hariri) and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and won, through force of arms, the right to share power and veto government decisions.
"What is beyond doubt," writes Zvi Mazel in the Jerusalem Post, "is that both Hizbullah and Syria will do all they can to prevent the court from fulfilling its mandate. If the court does not desist one way or another, fighting will probably erupt in Lebanon."
Tensions soar
If the Special Tribunal on Lebanon (STL) rules, as is expected, that Hezballah, Syria and the heads of Lebanese intelligence agencies are complicit in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, then the issue of Hezballah's arms would most certainly be back on the table. As Elias Youssef Bejjani reports, Hezballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has vowed not to abide by the court's rulings, having tagged the tribunal an Israeli-American conspiracy and a tool of treason against Lebanon established on the fabrications of false witnesses in a bid to have the "resistance" cornered, framed, dismantled and disarmed. Nasrallah, determined to prevent any ruling that could lead to calls for Hezballah's disarmament, is threatening violence.
Once again, Lebanon teeters on the verge of civil war. The pressure has been such that Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been forced to retreat. Realistically, what else can Hariri do? For PM Hariri has no means to fight Hezballah, especially now the US has no influence in the region, Iran is ascendant, and Saudi Arabia (Hariri's natural ally) is more interested in improving ties with Sunni-majority Arab Syria in the vain hope that it can lure Syria out of Iran's Shi'ite-majority Persian embrace.
Even after his March 14 Alliance won the June 2009 elections, Hariri was forced to accommodate Hezballah by inviting them into a government of national unity. Thus Hezballah secured through terror, not only a share of power and the right to veto parliament, but control of the foreign affairs, health, communications, energy and industry portfolios as well.
The situation has not changed. In the absence of meaningful international support (i.e. something other than mere words), Lebanon's national security will remain dependent upon perpetual accommodation and appeasement of Hezballah.
In September, Syria's President Bashir summonsed PM Hariri to meet with him in Damascus. Upon his return, Hariri echoed the sentiments of Hezballah's Nasrallah and cast suspicions on the ability of the STL to make a right judgement. Hariri suggested that the tribunal had been deceived and that this had led to a deterioration of relations between Lebanon and Syria. Next month Hariri will play host Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Clearly, to a threatened man without means of resistance, the gravitational pull of the Iranian axis is irresistible.
Sami Gemayel, a Maronite Christian, is the son of former president Amin Gemayel, brother of assassinated MP Pierre Gemayel, and nephew of assassinated former president-elect Bachir Gemayel. As a strong Lebanese nationalist, he is a staunch critic of Hezballah. Consequently, Gemayel objected vehemently to PM Hariri's u-turn on the STL, going on to accuse Hezballah of collaborating against Lebanon's interests. Nasrallah responded by posting a grim threat on Hezballah's website -- the Islamic Resistance Forum -- in which he denounced the Christian leader as an Israeli spy and called for his "crucifixion on a pole in the Pride and Dignity Square in Beirut".
Hezballah's Christian allies
At the time of the 2005 elections, around 70 percent of Lebanon's Christians supported the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of General (retired) Michel Aoun. On 6 February 2006, Aoun signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" (MOU) with Hezballah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a ceremony in Mar Mikhail Church, just a few blocks from Hezballah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. Doubtless Hezballah was seeking to secure Christian allies who could support their causes in parliament. Nasrallah may have even been betting that the March 8 opposition could ride to power on the FPM's coat-tails. Meanwhile, the highly ambitious Aoun had his eyes on the presidency (reserved for a Christian) and was doubtless betting (as were many Christians) he could secure political power, liberty and security for Christians through a pact/covenant with the toughest boys on the block.
Back in June 2006, after I wrote a piece entitled "Lebanon Falls" in which I was critical of Hezballah's May 2008 violent seizure of Beirut, I was chided by some well known Lebanese evangelicals who accused me of misrepresenting Hezballah. After commenting that they and virtually all Lebanese Christians shared Hezballah's anti-Israel stance, they insisted that Hezballah was most definitely not anti-Semitic, not anti-Christian, and not a terrorist organisation. On the contrary, they told me, Hezballah was in fact an ally in the quest for religious liberty, political power and equality, citing the MOU as "proof".
I said at the time, and still maintain today, that this alliance with Hezballah will be for Christians nothing other than a "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15-22).
By the time of the June 2009 elections, suspicion was simmering throughout the Christian heartland north of Beirut where Hezballah's establishment of military outposts was causing alarm. Consequently, a significant number of Christians deserted Aoun on polling day, and Aoun could not deliver to Hezballah the numbers he had projected.
Today, reports and movements on the ground suggest that Hezballah is preparing to stage a coup and co-opt its Christian allies to fight its Christian opponents.
Elias Youssef Bejjani reports: "Well-informed Saudi sources have confirmed to the 'Beirut Observer' that . . . information became available to them indicating that an imminent Hezbollah coup is in on the horizon." According to reports, Hezballah's strategy will be similar to that enacted in the May 2008 blitzkrieg, in that militants will simultaneously take control of roads, media and state institutions, and besiege the homes of government officials, effectively placing them under house arrest until they are subdued.
(Of course there will be no need to besiege Walid Jumblatt's home this time, as he switched sides after the June 2009 election in order to align himself with the ascendant force. For along with the fact that Hezballah has proved itself to be the strongest military force in the country, despite losing the election 70 to 58 seats, the Hezballah-led March 8 opposition did win 55 percent of the vote.
See: How will Jumblatt’s split affect March 14?
By Maya Khourchid, NOW Lebanon, 6 August 2009
AND: Walid Jumblatt in Closed-Door Meeting with Druze Sheikhs: 'We Have No Choice But to Coexist with the Shi'ites'. MEMRI June 2009. )
According to reports, Hezballah's Christian allies have conspired with Hezballah to this end, and have served as intermediaries enabling Hezballah to purchase real estate in Christian regions loyal to PM Hariri and the March 14 Alliance. It has been confirmed that Hezballah has deployed some 3,500 armed militiamen along the Mediterranean coast and throughout the Christian regions north of Beirut, including through the cities of Junieh, Tabarja and Batroun. These militants, having taken up residence in chalets and apartments deep inside Christian areas, simply await the green light. Consequently, in the event of conflict, Hezballah will be positioned to besiege the homes of Dr. Samir Geagea (head of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party) and Amin Gemayel (head of the Kataeb Christian Party) and subdue the Christian regions by force. As in May 2008, Hezballah is not expecting any resistance from the clearly partisan Lebanese Army.
Further to this, Hezbollah is reportedly counting on General Michel Aoun's military aid in the Christian regions, where Aoun's role allegedly will be to contain and abort by force any resistance from the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges Parties.
This sets up a conflict scenario where Hezballah's Christian allies (backed by Hezballah of course) will be pitted against Hezballah's Christian opponents in a military conflagration where ultimately the only real winner can be Hezballah. A "covenant with death" indeed.
See also:
Hariri case 'could cause civil war'
Politician warns of sectarian violence if UN-backed tribunal indicts members of Hezbollah movement.
Aljazeera, 24 Sep 2010
Lebanon's hour
of reckoning
Claude Salhani, Khaleej Times, 25 September 2010
Syria, Saudi seek to calm tensions in Lebanon
By Rita Daou (AFP), 24 Sept2010
Fear and Loathing in the Levant
By Zvi Mazel for the Jerusalem Post, 21 Sept 2010.
Hezbollah's looming Coup Scenario
Elias Youssef Bejjani, International Analyst Network, 24 Sep 2010
Geagea accuses rivals of plotting 'coup' over STL
FPM raps LF chief’s ‘isolationist policy’
By Wassim Mroueh, Daily Star, 27 September 2010
Hizbullah reasserts right to defend itself against 'politicized' STL
By Elias Sakr, Daily Star, 27 September 2010
Showing posts with label Hezballah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hezballah. Show all posts
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Palestinian leadership incite terror as 2000 Fatah allegedly defect to Hezballah (with update below)
The Palestinian leadership have been busy inciting terror both directly: by calling for a "day of rage"; and indirectly: by publicly honouring a terrorist. Considering the degree to which this is normative, it is little wonder that so many Sunni Palestinians are finding themselves attracted to the overtly belligerent, terrorist, Shi'ite Hezballah.
Direct incitement
As the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America (CAMERA) reports: "On March 16, 2010, the Palestinian leadership — Fatah as well as Hamas — called for a 'day of rage,' inciting their followers to riot after the dedication of the newly rebuilt Hurva synagogue in Jerusalem's Jewish Quarter. The synagogue had been destroyed in 1948 when Jordan seized the Jewish Quarter and expelled its residents. Following the historical pattern of their predecessors, the Palestinian leaders called for jihad in defense of Muslim holy sites, falsely claiming that the opening of the synagogue was the first step in Israel's plan to take over or destroy the Al Aqsa mosque."
CAMERA decries not only Palestinian lies, incitement and rioting, but the media's general willingness to overlook and/or excuse Palestinian lies, incitement and rioting, and blame Israel for allegedly pushing the Palestinians "over the edge".
Hezballah, of course, wasted no time in pledging solidarity with the rioters.
See Iran's PressTV 17 March.
Indirect incitement
As CAMERA notes, only days earlier, the "Palestinian Authority renamed a public square in Ramallah after Dalal al-Mughrabi, a Palestinian terrorist responsible for the 1978 Coastal Road Massacre, in which 38 civilians (including 13 children and an American photographer) were murdered and 71 wounded."
See Melanie Phillip's 12 March comment in the Spectator: "Is this why the Palestinians 'deserve' a state, Mr Biden?"
See also this confronting and moving 17 March piece in the LA Times by Ron Kehrmann, Yossi Mendelevich and Yossi Zur (all victims of Palestinian terror), who simply ask, "Why glorify the murderers?"
After adding that Dalal al-Mughrabi's name already adorns a girl's school in Hebron, Kehrmann, Mendelevich and Zur ask: "What message is the Palestinian Authority trying to send to the Palestinian people, especially to the children growing up under its rule? [. . .] How can terrorists use children as human shields in fire exchanges? Where are the parents, teachers, community leaders? How does a society have a suicide-murderer waiting list of 500 young Palestinians wanting to kill themselves along with Israelis, as was the case during the worst days of the second intifada, when a terror attack occurred almost daily?"
And their answer: "The answers lie in years of brainwashing, which starts at a very young age, through education and religious television channels, mosque prayers and lessons that make people believe that death is better than life; that killing innocent people, without distinction, will improve Palestinian life.
"The answers are rooted in years of glorifying the murderers, putting their posters on streets, giving their families money and respect, and yes, in naming city squares after them.
"These children are taught to hate Israelis and Jews and to disrespect their own lives."
Now Hezballah scoops the pool
DEBKA reports (17 March) that Iran's Lebanese proxy, the Hizballah militia, has set up a Palestinian operations unit for 2,000 new recruits from the Lebanese Fatah. Fatah commander Col. Munir Maqdah, led the mass defection. "The first major Palestinian defection to the Shiite Hizballah has given Iran and its proxy a large foot inside Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah organization and swelled Hizballah's fighting strength by some 15 percent."
DEBKA notes: Col. Munir Maqdah not only acted as liaison between Fatah and al Qaeda's affiliates in Lebanon, such as Fatah al-Islam, he also maintained close ties with Palestinian terrorist sleeper cells in the West Bank towns of Nablus and Jenin. His networks and contacts are now available to Tehran.
See: More than 2,000 Fatah defect to Hizballah, Iran's first big Palestinian gain
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 17, 2010.
UPDATE: I have been advised by a long-time and respected analyst of Middle East affairs, that DEBKA is not a totally reliable source.
However, on 18 March, Lebanon's Daily Star reported that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's attempt in January to restructure Fatah in Lebanon sparked considerable aggitation.
"Residents of the southern Palestinian refugee camp of Ain al-Hilweh near Sidon have been expressing pessimism and frustration over the matter and have voiced doubts about the faction’s unity and goals."
Abbas controversially dismissed Fatah leader Col. Munir Maqdah, "the head of the Palestinian Armed Struggle in Lebanon", and this appears to have caused a deep rift between Abbas and Maqdah. Tensions have been escalating ever since.
According to The National (Arab Emirates) (24 Feb), the new Fatah commander's mandate to rid the camps of extremists reportedly provoked "a cycle of murder, revenge and intrigue that threatens security not only in the camp itself, but in the nearby city of Sidon, according to numerous officials, residents and observers of life in Lebanon’s most crowded and dangerous square kilometre."
The National describes "a confrontation and a meeting of influential camp officials, led by Abu Ahmed of Hamas and Munir al Maqdah, a rogue Fatah commander with close ties to the Islamist groups who maintains a powerful militia in the camp."
On Sunday 21 March, Maqdah told pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat that he had not defected to Hezballah and that such a story is aimed purely at "inciting the international community against Hezballah and the Palestinian camps and creating more division within the Fatah movement."
This is certainly a situation to be watching.
Direct incitement
As the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America (CAMERA) reports: "On March 16, 2010, the Palestinian leadership — Fatah as well as Hamas — called for a 'day of rage,' inciting their followers to riot after the dedication of the newly rebuilt Hurva synagogue in Jerusalem's Jewish Quarter. The synagogue had been destroyed in 1948 when Jordan seized the Jewish Quarter and expelled its residents. Following the historical pattern of their predecessors, the Palestinian leaders called for jihad in defense of Muslim holy sites, falsely claiming that the opening of the synagogue was the first step in Israel's plan to take over or destroy the Al Aqsa mosque."
CAMERA decries not only Palestinian lies, incitement and rioting, but the media's general willingness to overlook and/or excuse Palestinian lies, incitement and rioting, and blame Israel for allegedly pushing the Palestinians "over the edge".
Hezballah, of course, wasted no time in pledging solidarity with the rioters.
See Iran's PressTV 17 March.
Indirect incitement
As CAMERA notes, only days earlier, the "Palestinian Authority renamed a public square in Ramallah after Dalal al-Mughrabi, a Palestinian terrorist responsible for the 1978 Coastal Road Massacre, in which 38 civilians (including 13 children and an American photographer) were murdered and 71 wounded."
See Melanie Phillip's 12 March comment in the Spectator: "Is this why the Palestinians 'deserve' a state, Mr Biden?"
See also this confronting and moving 17 March piece in the LA Times by Ron Kehrmann, Yossi Mendelevich and Yossi Zur (all victims of Palestinian terror), who simply ask, "Why glorify the murderers?"
After adding that Dalal al-Mughrabi's name already adorns a girl's school in Hebron, Kehrmann, Mendelevich and Zur ask: "What message is the Palestinian Authority trying to send to the Palestinian people, especially to the children growing up under its rule? [. . .] How can terrorists use children as human shields in fire exchanges? Where are the parents, teachers, community leaders? How does a society have a suicide-murderer waiting list of 500 young Palestinians wanting to kill themselves along with Israelis, as was the case during the worst days of the second intifada, when a terror attack occurred almost daily?"
And their answer: "The answers lie in years of brainwashing, which starts at a very young age, through education and religious television channels, mosque prayers and lessons that make people believe that death is better than life; that killing innocent people, without distinction, will improve Palestinian life.
"The answers are rooted in years of glorifying the murderers, putting their posters on streets, giving their families money and respect, and yes, in naming city squares after them.
"These children are taught to hate Israelis and Jews and to disrespect their own lives."
Now Hezballah scoops the pool
DEBKA reports (17 March) that Iran's Lebanese proxy, the Hizballah militia, has set up a Palestinian operations unit for 2,000 new recruits from the Lebanese Fatah. Fatah commander Col. Munir Maqdah, led the mass defection. "The first major Palestinian defection to the Shiite Hizballah has given Iran and its proxy a large foot inside Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah organization and swelled Hizballah's fighting strength by some 15 percent."
DEBKA notes: Col. Munir Maqdah not only acted as liaison between Fatah and al Qaeda's affiliates in Lebanon, such as Fatah al-Islam, he also maintained close ties with Palestinian terrorist sleeper cells in the West Bank towns of Nablus and Jenin. His networks and contacts are now available to Tehran.
See: More than 2,000 Fatah defect to Hizballah, Iran's first big Palestinian gain
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 17, 2010.
UPDATE: I have been advised by a long-time and respected analyst of Middle East affairs, that DEBKA is not a totally reliable source.
However, on 18 March, Lebanon's Daily Star reported that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's attempt in January to restructure Fatah in Lebanon sparked considerable aggitation.
"Residents of the southern Palestinian refugee camp of Ain al-Hilweh near Sidon have been expressing pessimism and frustration over the matter and have voiced doubts about the faction’s unity and goals."
Abbas controversially dismissed Fatah leader Col. Munir Maqdah, "the head of the Palestinian Armed Struggle in Lebanon", and this appears to have caused a deep rift between Abbas and Maqdah. Tensions have been escalating ever since.
According to The National (Arab Emirates) (24 Feb), the new Fatah commander's mandate to rid the camps of extremists reportedly provoked "a cycle of murder, revenge and intrigue that threatens security not only in the camp itself, but in the nearby city of Sidon, according to numerous officials, residents and observers of life in Lebanon’s most crowded and dangerous square kilometre."
The National describes "a confrontation and a meeting of influential camp officials, led by Abu Ahmed of Hamas and Munir al Maqdah, a rogue Fatah commander with close ties to the Islamist groups who maintains a powerful militia in the camp."
On Sunday 21 March, Maqdah told pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat that he had not defected to Hezballah and that such a story is aimed purely at "inciting the international community against Hezballah and the Palestinian camps and creating more division within the Fatah movement."
This is certainly a situation to be watching.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
LEBANON FALLS
Date: Wednesday 11 June 2008
Subj: Lebanon Falls.
To: World Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
From: WEA RLC Principal Researcher and Writer, Elizabeth Kendal
Iran-sponsored, Shi'ite dominated Hezballah does not want to govern Lebanon. What Hezballah wants -- indeed demands -- is freedom to ignore UN resolutions and re-build, re-organise and re-arm for war with absolute impunity.
In a 6 May cabinet meeting that lasted until 4am the next morning, the government (which is dominated by the Sunni-led March 14 forces) declared that Hezballah's extensive, completely independent communications network must be integrated with the government's. Of particular concern to the Telecommunications Minister, Marawn Hamadeh, was an "illegal and unconstitutional" communications and surveillance system that had been installed on Runway 17 of Beirut airport by Wafiq Shuqayr at Hezballah's request. The cabinet therefore also voted to remove Shaqayr -- a Shi'ite with known ties to Hezballah -- from his position as chief of airport security.
Hezballah's response was immediate, swift and devastating. Hezballah blockaded all the roads to the airport, seized Sunni West Beruit and shut down all the Sunni-owned pro-government media. After two days of fighting in Beirut, Hebzallah moved its fight to Druze areas of Mount Lebanon. Eventually, with the state at the brink of civil war, and with their homes under siege, both Hariri (Sunni leader) and Jumblatt (Druze leader) were forced to negotiate on Hezballah's terms. It was a most impressive blitzkrieg.
The Lebanese Army under the direction of General Suleiman (who was appointed to the post with Syrian approval in 1998 when Syria controlled Lebanon) did not resist Hezballah. Yet this is the same army that doggedly fought and profoundly defeated al-Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam (Sunni) in north Lebanon over three months in the summer of 2007.
Once Hezballah had proved its power, it handed its gains to the Lebanese Army. The government revoked its 6 May cabinet decisions and transferred the contentious issues -- Hezballah's communications network and Wafiq Shuqayr's position as chief of airport security -- over to the Army commander General Suleiman who declared both issues null.
Then on 21 May in Qatar (which is according to analyst Barry Rubin "an integral part of the Iran-Syria-Hezballah axis") the Lebanese government capitulated to Hezballah's conditions and surrendered its sovereignty. Lebanon has fallen. Hezballah now has veto power over all Lebanese government decisions; their candidate -- General Michel Suleiman -- has been installed as president; they control one-third of the cabinet; and they have authority to gerrymander and create smaller electorates in order to ensure victory at the next legislative elections. On 22 May the UN endorsed the agreement. Lebanon is now, in the words of Barry Rubin, "part of the Iranian bloc" and Hezballah is free to advance its war agenda unhindered.
Lebanon's fall will probably go down as the most geo-strategically significant event of 2008. Yet there was barely a sound. Instead of crashing like a major tsunami-inducing earthquake, the fall of Lebanon was more akin to a small, weak, abandoned man being kicked into quicksand by a pack of bullies. And as darkness envelopes this poor sinking man, his supposed friends, from the comfort and safety of their faraway palaces, praise all parties for avoiding war and making peace.
From this point I will limit myself to commenting on the religious liberty implications. However, I will provide a list of what I regard as the best reporting and analysis on the Hezballah blitzkrieg and resultant political situation.
RELIGIOUS LIBERTY IMPLICATIONS
The fall of Lebanon is the continuation and confluence of two trends that are being monitored by WEA RLC: the Shi'ite ascendancy and the decline of US influence. It has horrendous implications not only for Lebanon but for religious liberty and security in the whole Middle East.
For background see WEA RLC analysis on these two trends:
Religious Liberty Trends 2006-2007
3. RL TREND: SHIITE ASCENDANCY
Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
By Elizabeth Kendal, 5 Feb 2007
Religious Liberty Trends 2007-2008
(trend 2: "The New Cold War")
Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
By Elizabeth Kendal, 15 Feb 2008
While Hezballah does not want to govern Lebanon, it is without a doubt preparing the ground for regime change. It is only a matter of time now before the weak, abandoned and subservient pro-Lebanon, pro-West, "moderate" and Sunni-led government is replaced with one that is pro-Syria, pro-Iran, pro-Hezballah and pro-jihad. In the mean time we will doubtless see many "moderate" Sunnis, Druze and even some Christians behaving as abandoned, subjugated peoples and falling into line behind Hezballah for survival purposes.
As Shi'ite power rises and advances across the region, and as US influence declines, US "allies" in the region -- that is the Sunnis (great respecters of power) -- are switching sides. The latter portion of the Religious Liberty Trends 2007-2008 posting, under the subheading "A Word on the Middle East", notes several indicators to this effect. Now further to this, recent reports from Compass Direct () reveal a sudden ominous and dramatic rise in religious repression and hostility from the formerly progressive and West-friendly regime in Jordan. Having demonstrated its power so profoundly, Hezballah will not have to work too hard in Lebanon to get the Sunnis to line up behind its anti-Semitic, anti-Christian, pro-Sharia, pro-jihad "Islamic" agenda.
As noted in WEA RLC Religious Liberty Trends postings, both the Shi'ite ascendancy and the decline of US influence do not augur well for the religious liberty and security of Christians in the Middle East. As these two trends converge, each will cause the other to escalate. Over recent decades, US influence in the region (which extends most from America's economic power) has forced Arab states to constrain Islamic forces. As circumstances change and the constraints disappear and as the repressive and apocalyptic Iranian cleric-led regime assumes the role of regional hegemon, the future for Christians and all non-Muslims in the Middle East is extremely precarious.
RECOMMENDED REPORTS
Hezballah's Blitzkrieg:
"A deadly miscalculation in Lebanon",
By Sami Moubayed, 14 May 2008
Asia Times Online
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE14Ak03.html
Facts (and maps) concerning Hezballah's communications network:
"Hezbollah's Communication Network Confirms Its Terror Goals"
By Walid Phares, PhD 21 May 2008
World Defense Review
http://worlddefensereview.com/phares052108.shtml
Best analysis:
1) "The Fall of Lebanon",
By Barry Rubin, 24 May 2008
The Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center
http://www.gloriacenter.org/index.asp?pname=submenus/articles/2008/rubin/5_24.asp
In this piece Barry Rubin compares the situation in Lebanon and the wider Middle East in May 2008 to that of Czechoslovakia and central/eastern Europe in October 1938 after "Britain and France effectively turned Czechoslovakia over to Nazi Germany".
2) "The Nasrallah speech: Hezbollah ruled, the West is fooled"
By Walid Phares, PhD 2 June 2008
World Defense Review
http://worlddefensereview.com/phares060208.shtml
In this piece Walid Phares dissects and analyses Nasrallah's victory speech.
-- Elizabeth Kendal
Subj: Lebanon Falls.
To: World Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
From: WEA RLC Principal Researcher and Writer, Elizabeth Kendal
Iran-sponsored, Shi'ite dominated Hezballah does not want to govern Lebanon. What Hezballah wants -- indeed demands -- is freedom to ignore UN resolutions and re-build, re-organise and re-arm for war with absolute impunity.
In a 6 May cabinet meeting that lasted until 4am the next morning, the government (which is dominated by the Sunni-led March 14 forces) declared that Hezballah's extensive, completely independent communications network must be integrated with the government's. Of particular concern to the Telecommunications Minister, Marawn Hamadeh, was an "illegal and unconstitutional" communications and surveillance system that had been installed on Runway 17 of Beirut airport by Wafiq Shuqayr at Hezballah's request. The cabinet therefore also voted to remove Shaqayr -- a Shi'ite with known ties to Hezballah -- from his position as chief of airport security.
Hezballah's response was immediate, swift and devastating. Hezballah blockaded all the roads to the airport, seized Sunni West Beruit and shut down all the Sunni-owned pro-government media. After two days of fighting in Beirut, Hebzallah moved its fight to Druze areas of Mount Lebanon. Eventually, with the state at the brink of civil war, and with their homes under siege, both Hariri (Sunni leader) and Jumblatt (Druze leader) were forced to negotiate on Hezballah's terms. It was a most impressive blitzkrieg.
The Lebanese Army under the direction of General Suleiman (who was appointed to the post with Syrian approval in 1998 when Syria controlled Lebanon) did not resist Hezballah. Yet this is the same army that doggedly fought and profoundly defeated al-Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam (Sunni) in north Lebanon over three months in the summer of 2007.
Once Hezballah had proved its power, it handed its gains to the Lebanese Army. The government revoked its 6 May cabinet decisions and transferred the contentious issues -- Hezballah's communications network and Wafiq Shuqayr's position as chief of airport security -- over to the Army commander General Suleiman who declared both issues null.
Then on 21 May in Qatar (which is according to analyst Barry Rubin "an integral part of the Iran-Syria-Hezballah axis") the Lebanese government capitulated to Hezballah's conditions and surrendered its sovereignty. Lebanon has fallen. Hezballah now has veto power over all Lebanese government decisions; their candidate -- General Michel Suleiman -- has been installed as president; they control one-third of the cabinet; and they have authority to gerrymander and create smaller electorates in order to ensure victory at the next legislative elections. On 22 May the UN endorsed the agreement. Lebanon is now, in the words of Barry Rubin, "part of the Iranian bloc" and Hezballah is free to advance its war agenda unhindered.
Lebanon's fall will probably go down as the most geo-strategically significant event of 2008. Yet there was barely a sound. Instead of crashing like a major tsunami-inducing earthquake, the fall of Lebanon was more akin to a small, weak, abandoned man being kicked into quicksand by a pack of bullies. And as darkness envelopes this poor sinking man, his supposed friends, from the comfort and safety of their faraway palaces, praise all parties for avoiding war and making peace.
From this point I will limit myself to commenting on the religious liberty implications. However, I will provide a list of what I regard as the best reporting and analysis on the Hezballah blitzkrieg and resultant political situation.
RELIGIOUS LIBERTY IMPLICATIONS
The fall of Lebanon is the continuation and confluence of two trends that are being monitored by WEA RLC: the Shi'ite ascendancy and the decline of US influence. It has horrendous implications not only for Lebanon but for religious liberty and security in the whole Middle East.
For background see WEA RLC analysis on these two trends:
Religious Liberty Trends 2006-2007
3. RL TREND: SHIITE ASCENDANCY
Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
By Elizabeth Kendal, 5 Feb 2007
Religious Liberty Trends 2007-2008
(trend 2: "The New Cold War")
Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
By Elizabeth Kendal, 15 Feb 2008
While Hezballah does not want to govern Lebanon, it is without a doubt preparing the ground for regime change. It is only a matter of time now before the weak, abandoned and subservient pro-Lebanon, pro-West, "moderate" and Sunni-led government is replaced with one that is pro-Syria, pro-Iran, pro-Hezballah and pro-jihad. In the mean time we will doubtless see many "moderate" Sunnis, Druze and even some Christians behaving as abandoned, subjugated peoples and falling into line behind Hezballah for survival purposes.
As Shi'ite power rises and advances across the region, and as US influence declines, US "allies" in the region -- that is the Sunnis (great respecters of power) -- are switching sides. The latter portion of the Religious Liberty Trends 2007-2008 posting, under the subheading "A Word on the Middle East", notes several indicators to this effect. Now further to this, recent reports from Compass Direct (
As noted in WEA RLC Religious Liberty Trends postings, both the Shi'ite ascendancy and the decline of US influence do not augur well for the religious liberty and security of Christians in the Middle East. As these two trends converge, each will cause the other to escalate. Over recent decades, US influence in the region (which extends most from America's economic power) has forced Arab states to constrain Islamic forces. As circumstances change and the constraints disappear and as the repressive and apocalyptic Iranian cleric-led regime assumes the role of regional hegemon, the future for Christians and all non-Muslims in the Middle East is extremely precarious.
RECOMMENDED REPORTS
Hezballah's Blitzkrieg:
"A deadly miscalculation in Lebanon",
By Sami Moubayed, 14 May 2008
Asia Times Online
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE14Ak03.html
Facts (and maps) concerning Hezballah's communications network:
"Hezbollah's Communication Network Confirms Its Terror Goals"
By Walid Phares, PhD 21 May 2008
World Defense Review
http://worlddefensereview.com/phares052108.shtml
Best analysis:
1) "The Fall of Lebanon",
By Barry Rubin, 24 May 2008
The Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center
http://www.gloriacenter.org/index.asp?pname=submenus/articles/2008/rubin/5_24.asp
In this piece Barry Rubin compares the situation in Lebanon and the wider Middle East in May 2008 to that of Czechoslovakia and central/eastern Europe in October 1938 after "Britain and France effectively turned Czechoslovakia over to Nazi Germany".
2) "The Nasrallah speech: Hezbollah ruled, the West is fooled"
By Walid Phares, PhD 2 June 2008
World Defense Review
http://worlddefensereview.com/phares060208.shtml
In this piece Walid Phares dissects and analyses Nasrallah's victory speech.
-- Elizabeth Kendal