By Elizabeth Kendal
BACKGROUND
After the Malian government in Bamako was overthrown in a military coup on 22 March, the Tuareg nationalist-secularist National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), with support from the al-Qaeda-linked Islamists of Ansar Dine, exploited the chaos to advance and seize control of northern Mali. Since then, more than 300,000 people are estimated to have fled northern Mali.
See MALI: Christians flee as jihadists seize control of north
Religious Liberty Monitoring 11 April 2012
As long as the MNLA and Ansar Dine were fighting their common enemy (the Malian government) the alliance worked well. However, the mismatched forces proved unable to work together in government, for while the MNLA's goal is an independent state, Ansar Dine's goal is the imposition of Islamic Sharia law across the whole country. From the very beginning, despite the MNLA's leadership and elevated profile, the reality on the ground has always been that the al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Dine is the stronger force and the one in control.
See MALI: Islamist's weapons seizure will greatly boost AQIM's striking power
Religious Liberty Monitoring 5 June 2012
ISLAMISTS OUST TUAREG-NATIONALIST MNLA
-- making the reality official.
On Tuesday 26 June, the Islamists seized control of Gao from the Tuareg MNLA. Twenty-six people were killed (mostly armed militants; mostly MNLA) and dozens wounded in fighting which involved the use of heavy weapons. MNLA political leader, Bilal Ag Cherif, was wounded. The al-Qaeda-linked Islamists took over buildings that had been occupied by the Tuaregs -- including their headquarters.
Claiming to have merely made a tactical retreat, the MNLA denies it has lost the fight. "Right now some MNLA units, stationed at the borders of Azawad, are coming back to completely rid the city of Gao of Islamist groups that are terrorizing the population," MNLA spokesman Mossa Ag Attaher said in a written statement.
Reuters reports that a Timbuktu resident said on Thursday (28 June) that MNLA fighters who had been stationed at the city's airport and port had now even abandoned those positions. (Confirmed by AP)
See Reuters: Islamists declare full control of Mali's north
By Tiemoko Diallo and Adama Diarra
BAMAKO, Thu 28 June 2012
Details in Serge Daniel's account will give Bamako cause for concern, along with all the Christians, secularists and moderates who have fled there:
"The Islamists slowly moved their chessmen into place, first blocking the Tuareg from accessing the heavy weapons they had brought back from Libya and hidden in the AQIM-controlled mountains in north-eastern Mali, experts said.
"Then they won sympathy on the ground among the different tribes in the north, where Tuareg are a minority, by distributing basic goods and insisting they wanted to maintain the territorial integrity of Mali.
" 'When the mujahideen took Gao, they walked through the town brandishing the Malian flag, we liked that,' said Saly Toure who works for the Sahel Museum in Gao which has been closed since the beginning of the crisis.
"But to win 'the Islamists also played the corruption card wholeheartedly,' said an African diplomat based in Bamako, on condition of anonymity. 'A very influent leader of a citizens' association in Gao was "bought". Since then he turned his back on the Tuareg to support the Islamists.'
"He said the defeat of the MNLA would change the framework of negotiations with transition authorities who took over from the junta.
"Lacking money, abandoned by their supporters and riven by internal divisions [between French and Arabic speaking factions], the Tuareg rebels have been sorely weakened, and only hold small towns such as Gossi, Menaka and Anderamboukane.
See: Islamists rout Tuareg from their own rebellion in north Mali
By Serge Daniel (AFP) 28 June 2012
Al Jazeera has a more detailed report:
'Dozens killed' in northern Mali fighting
At least 20 people dead as Islamist and Tuareg groups battle for control of northern towns.
Al Jazeera 28 Jun 2012
NOTE: Al Jazeera reports there are at least two Islamist factions involved: the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) - which seized
parts of Gao - and Ansar Dine, which based itself in Timbuktu. Both
Islamist groups are believed to have links to al-Qaeda.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Monday, June 18, 2012
EGYPT: echos of Algeria as SCAF trumps Islamists
Updating the previous post: Egypt: the military versus the Islamists (15 June 2012)
By Elizabeth Kendal
Dr Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood has claimed victory in Egypt's presidential elections. With around 95 percent of the vote counted, returns are showing Dr Morsi winning 52 percent of the vote (around12.7 million votes) with his opponent, the former air-force chief and Mubarak-era Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, winning 48 percent (around 11.84 million). The final official result is to be announced by Thursday.
However, on Sunday evening 17 June, before the polls had even closed, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) issued an Interim Constitutional Declaration with amendments that give the SCAF legislative power following the dissolution of the Islamists-led parliament. The interim constitution limits the president's powers, stripping him of any authority over the army. It also and gives the military the right to manage the budget and appoint the 100-member panel tasked with drafting a new and permanent constitution.
According to the SCAF's interim constitution, parliamentary elections will take place one month from the day the new constitution is approved by the national referendum.
See: Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi wins Egypt's presidential election
Associated Press, 18 June 2012
English text of SCAF amended Egypt Constitutional Declaration
Ahram Online summarises the military-authored revised Constitutional Declaration - outlining the powers of the coming Egyptian president
Ahram Online, Monday 18 Jun 2012
Revised constitutional chart stirs up controversy
Political experts and public figures denounce the newly announced addendum to the interim Constitutional Declaration, saying it gives the military council unfettered authorities
Sadek Jalal al-Azm et al Ahram Online, Monday 18 Jun 2012
SHOWDOWN LOOMS
Jack Shenker writes from Cairo for the Guardian: "Pro-change activists and human rights campaigners said the junta's constitutional declaration – which comes just days after judges extended the army's ability to arrest civilians and following the dissolution of Egypt's Brotherhood-dominated parliament by the country's top court – rendered the scheduled 'handover' of power to a democratically-elected executive 'meaningless'. The Brotherhood were quick to label the declaration 'null and unconstitutional', raising the prospect of a dramatic showdown within the highest institutions of the state."
Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is insisting that the "SCAF has no authority to dissolve the freely and democratically elected parliament, not without a public referendum".
Dr Mohamed Saad el-Katatni, the secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and Speaker of the People's Assembly, flatly rejected SCAF's Interim Constitutional Declaration. Katatni also deemed SCAF's decision to dissolve the parliament null and void because it is not based on any constitutional legitimacy, principle or procedure, according to the existing Constitutional Declaration. A statement on the MB's website, IkhwanWeb reads: "Dr. Katatni reiterated to SCAF members his categorical rejection of complementary constitutional declaration, as it infringes on the legislature which has the inherent right to legislate, adding that the Constitutional Declaration approved by popular referendum on March 19, 2011 and released on March 30, 2011 did not give SCAF the right to assume the power of legislation in the presence of an elected parliament."
See also: SCAF cannot execute High Court verdict: Defunct Egypt parliament speaker
Saad El-Katatni, the speaker of the People's Assembly, says the ruling junta does not have the right to implement a court verdict to dismantle the parliament's lower house - only the people do
Ahram Online, Saturday 16 Jun 2012
Analysts are drawing parallels with Algeria, where in 1991 the military cancelled a second round of elections when it became obvious that Islamists were set to win power. The move triggered a decade-long civil war.
Algerian Islamists are warning that Egypt could be following in Algeria's footsteps. El-Hachemi Sahnouni, a former leader and founder of Algeria's Islamic Salvation Front, told Al Arabiya that what has happened in Egypt is "similar to what happened in Algeria in 1991". Sahnouni is "worried that the biggest Arab country might plunge into violence similar to what occurred in Algeria. If this happens, it will be a catastrophe not only for Egypt but for all of the Arab countries."
Others believe violence is unlikely. "I don't see an Algeria scenario," said Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed, professor of political science at Cairo University, in reference to the Algerian civil war in 1991 after the military took power following an Islamist legislative win. "It was a different context. In Algeria, there was violence from both sides. But in Egypt, for the moment there has only been threats through statements." Ibrahim al-Houdaiby, an expert on Islamist movements, also dismissed the prospect of widespread violence between the Brotherhood and the generals. "The Brotherhood will use a strategy of pressure to gain posts before finally adapting their politics," he said. (Egyptian Gazette 18 June)
But as Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think-tank comments: "This is an opening scene in what is certain to be a drama. It’s hard to imagine how this can pass quietly."
By Elizabeth Kendal
Dr Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood has claimed victory in Egypt's presidential elections. With around 95 percent of the vote counted, returns are showing Dr Morsi winning 52 percent of the vote (around12.7 million votes) with his opponent, the former air-force chief and Mubarak-era Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, winning 48 percent (around 11.84 million). The final official result is to be announced by Thursday.
However, on Sunday evening 17 June, before the polls had even closed, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) issued an Interim Constitutional Declaration with amendments that give the SCAF legislative power following the dissolution of the Islamists-led parliament. The interim constitution limits the president's powers, stripping him of any authority over the army. It also and gives the military the right to manage the budget and appoint the 100-member panel tasked with drafting a new and permanent constitution.
According to the SCAF's interim constitution, parliamentary elections will take place one month from the day the new constitution is approved by the national referendum.
See: Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi wins Egypt's presidential election
Associated Press, 18 June 2012
English text of SCAF amended Egypt Constitutional Declaration
Ahram Online summarises the military-authored revised Constitutional Declaration - outlining the powers of the coming Egyptian president
Ahram Online, Monday 18 Jun 2012
Revised constitutional chart stirs up controversy
Political experts and public figures denounce the newly announced addendum to the interim Constitutional Declaration, saying it gives the military council unfettered authorities
Sadek Jalal al-Azm et al Ahram Online, Monday 18 Jun 2012
SHOWDOWN LOOMS
Jack Shenker writes from Cairo for the Guardian: "Pro-change activists and human rights campaigners said the junta's constitutional declaration – which comes just days after judges extended the army's ability to arrest civilians and following the dissolution of Egypt's Brotherhood-dominated parliament by the country's top court – rendered the scheduled 'handover' of power to a democratically-elected executive 'meaningless'. The Brotherhood were quick to label the declaration 'null and unconstitutional', raising the prospect of a dramatic showdown within the highest institutions of the state."
Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is insisting that the "SCAF has no authority to dissolve the freely and democratically elected parliament, not without a public referendum".
Dr Mohamed Saad el-Katatni, the secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and Speaker of the People's Assembly, flatly rejected SCAF's Interim Constitutional Declaration. Katatni also deemed SCAF's decision to dissolve the parliament null and void because it is not based on any constitutional legitimacy, principle or procedure, according to the existing Constitutional Declaration. A statement on the MB's website, IkhwanWeb reads: "Dr. Katatni reiterated to SCAF members his categorical rejection of complementary constitutional declaration, as it infringes on the legislature which has the inherent right to legislate, adding that the Constitutional Declaration approved by popular referendum on March 19, 2011 and released on March 30, 2011 did not give SCAF the right to assume the power of legislation in the presence of an elected parliament."
See also: SCAF cannot execute High Court verdict: Defunct Egypt parliament speaker
Saad El-Katatni, the speaker of the People's Assembly, says the ruling junta does not have the right to implement a court verdict to dismantle the parliament's lower house - only the people do
Ahram Online, Saturday 16 Jun 2012
Analysts are drawing parallels with Algeria, where in 1991 the military cancelled a second round of elections when it became obvious that Islamists were set to win power. The move triggered a decade-long civil war.
Algerian Islamists are warning that Egypt could be following in Algeria's footsteps. El-Hachemi Sahnouni, a former leader and founder of Algeria's Islamic Salvation Front, told Al Arabiya that what has happened in Egypt is "similar to what happened in Algeria in 1991". Sahnouni is "worried that the biggest Arab country might plunge into violence similar to what occurred in Algeria. If this happens, it will be a catastrophe not only for Egypt but for all of the Arab countries."
Others believe violence is unlikely. "I don't see an Algeria scenario," said Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed, professor of political science at Cairo University, in reference to the Algerian civil war in 1991 after the military took power following an Islamist legislative win. "It was a different context. In Algeria, there was violence from both sides. But in Egypt, for the moment there has only been threats through statements." Ibrahim al-Houdaiby, an expert on Islamist movements, also dismissed the prospect of widespread violence between the Brotherhood and the generals. "The Brotherhood will use a strategy of pressure to gain posts before finally adapting their politics," he said. (Egyptian Gazette 18 June)
But as Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think-tank comments: "This is an opening scene in what is certain to be a drama. It’s hard to imagine how this can pass quietly."
Friday, June 15, 2012
EGYPT: The military versus the Islamists
By Elizabeth Kendal
Updating Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin (RLPB) 163
EGYPT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 16-17 JUNE
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In April 2012, the Islamist-dominated parliament passed the Political Isolation Law which disqualified senior officials of Mubarak's regime from holding political posts. The law would have prevented Ahmed Shafiq (former air-force chief and Mubarak's last Prime Minister) from contesting the presidency had he not won an appeal against the law. At that point the Political Isolation Law was deferred to Egypt's Mubarak-appointed Supreme Constitutional Court.
On Wednesday 13 June, the day before the Constitutional Court was due to hand down its decision, Egypt's Justice Ministry issued a decree giving military police and intelligence officers permission to arrest civilians suspected of "crimes" such as activities deemed "harmful to the government", destruction of property, "obstructing traffic" and "resisting orders". The decree restores some of the powers of the decades-old emergency law which expired just two weeks ago. Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh, reporting from Cairo, "said Egyptian activists see the current order as 'much worse than the [previous] emergency law', in that it is seen as expanding the military's power".
Then, on Thursday 14 June, the Constitutional Court -- an institution in which the military maintains significant leverage -- unsurprisingly deemed the Political Isolation Law unconstitutional, thereby freeing Ahmed Shafiq to contest the presidential run-off this weekend.
In what activists and academics have described as a "soft military coup", the Constitutional Court also ruled the country's parliament illegitimate, paving the way for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) -- the military body that ruled after the first military coup ousted Mubarak -- to resume legislative powers.
According to Bloomberg Businessweek, the court found "that part of the law under which the parliament was elected was illegal, as it allowed parties to field nominees for [the one third of] seats earmarked for independent candidates. That ruling is irreversible and means the entire legislature is illegitimate, court spokesman Maher Sami said. . . . The court said parliament has no 'standing under law'."
Former presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, an independent Islamist, decried the two court rulings, saying they amount to "a complete coup". Writing on his Facebook page, Fotouh raged, "Keeping the military candidate [in the race] and overturning the elected parliament after granting the military police the right to arrest is a complete coup and whoever thinks that millions of youth will let it pass is deluding themselves,"
See: Egypt Court Dissolves Parliament in 'Soft Coup'
By Tarek El-Tablawy, Abdel Latif Wahba and Mariam Fam
Bloomberg News, 14 June 2012
Egypt supreme court calls for parliament to be dissolved
BBC, 14 June 2012
At this point in time, the Islamists are refusing to dissolve the parliament and have vowed to win the presidency. And despite the threat posed by the Justice Ministry's repressive decree, protests have begun and are expected to intensify after Friday prayers and across the weekend.
See: Egyptians protest as court dissolves parliament, confirms Shafiq candidacy
Mohammed Morsi: Millions over the weekend will say 'no' to tyrants
14 June 2012
Stratfor sees strategy
In a report entitled "Egypt's Military Delivers Ultimatum to Muslim Brotherhood" (14 June 2012), Stratfor Global Intelligence surmises that the legal manoeuvres are part of a military strategy to intimidate and contain the Muslim Brotherhood.
"Egypt's military has the least amount of control when the country goes to the polls. Through parliamentary elections the MB, together with Egypt's Salafist faction, the al-Nour Party, came to dominate parliament. And MB candidate Mohammed Morsi had a strong chance of beating Shafiq at the presidential election polls.
"The military's authority instead comes from its institutional leverage. The MB may have had nominal control over the parliament, but the military's influence over the judiciary effectively has nullified any parliamentary move the MB attempted. Similarly, the military is using its institutional strength to keep the drafting of the country's constitution out of the MB's control.
"The SCAF [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] could not be confident that its preferred candidate, Shafiq, would beat Morsi in the presidential runoff. The SCAF may be contemplating that the best way to protect its authority in the system is to back the MB [Muslim brotherhood] against a wall, first by pushing ahead Shafiq as a legitimate candidate, then by threatening to dissolve the MB-controlled parliament and finally by establishing itself as the final arbiter in the constitution-drafting process.
"The main question moving forward is whether the MB is ready for the grand bargain that the SCAF is trying to impose on the Islamist party. The SCAF appears willing to risk an MB presidency, so long as the MB cedes primary authority to the military in drafting the constitution, which will ultimately decide the balance of power among the military, parliament and presidency. The dissolution of parliament is a threat directed at the MB: If the MB accepts the military's demands on the constitution, then the SCAF could allow the parliament to remain as is; if not, it could dissolve parliament and schedule another round of parliamentary elections. In another round of elections, the MB would likely come out with another strong win. Only this time, the elections would theoretically take place within a constitutional framework shaped by the SCAF."
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The first military coup -- in which military power was leveraged to oust Mubarak -- rode on the back of youth-driven pro-democracy protests in Tahrir Square. In this second military coup, military-controlled legal instruments are being leveraged against the parliament while military power will be leveraged against the street with the aim of asserting military control over the Islamists as they stand on the threshold of controlling both the parliament and the presidency.
The battle between the military and the Islamists has begun in earnest, leaving Egyptians who had dreamed of progress and liberty lamenting what might have been and questioning why it was not achieved.