The Special Tribunal for Lebanon -- the International Court set up in May 2007 by the UN Security Council to investigate the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri and 22 others -- will soon deliver its findings. Expectations are running high that the tribunal will indict Hezballah, Syria and heads of Lebanon's intelligence agencies.
Reports and movements on the ground in Lebanon indicate that if the tribunal does indict Hezballah, then Hezballah will stage a coup or a policy-reversing blitzkeig similar to the one it staged in Beirut in May 2008 in which it laid siege to the homes of Sunni leader Saad Hariri (son of the assassinated Rafiq Hariri) and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and won, through force of arms, the right to share power and veto government decisions.
"What is beyond doubt," writes Zvi Mazel in the Jerusalem Post, "is that both Hizbullah and Syria will do all they can to prevent the court from fulfilling its mandate. If the court does not desist one way or another, fighting will probably erupt in Lebanon."
Tensions soar
If the Special Tribunal on Lebanon (STL) rules, as is expected, that Hezballah, Syria and the heads of Lebanese intelligence agencies are complicit in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, then the issue of Hezballah's arms would most certainly be back on the table. As Elias Youssef Bejjani reports, Hezballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has vowed not to abide by the court's rulings, having tagged the tribunal an Israeli-American conspiracy and a tool of treason against Lebanon established on the fabrications of false witnesses in a bid to have the "resistance" cornered, framed, dismantled and disarmed. Nasrallah, determined to prevent any ruling that could lead to calls for Hezballah's disarmament, is threatening violence.
Once again, Lebanon teeters on the verge of civil war. The pressure has been such that Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been forced to retreat. Realistically, what else can Hariri do? For PM Hariri has no means to fight Hezballah, especially now the US has no influence in the region, Iran is ascendant, and Saudi Arabia (Hariri's natural ally) is more interested in improving ties with Sunni-majority Arab Syria in the vain hope that it can lure Syria out of Iran's Shi'ite-majority Persian embrace.
Even after his March 14 Alliance won the June 2009 elections, Hariri was forced to accommodate Hezballah by inviting them into a government of national unity. Thus Hezballah secured through terror, not only a share of power and the right to veto parliament, but control of the foreign affairs, health, communications, energy and industry portfolios as well.
The situation has not changed. In the absence of meaningful international support (i.e. something other than mere words), Lebanon's national security will remain dependent upon perpetual accommodation and appeasement of Hezballah.
In September, Syria's President Bashir summonsed PM Hariri to meet with him in Damascus. Upon his return, Hariri echoed the sentiments of Hezballah's Nasrallah and cast suspicions on the ability of the STL to make a right judgement. Hariri suggested that the tribunal had been deceived and that this had led to a deterioration of relations between Lebanon and Syria. Next month Hariri will play host Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Clearly, to a threatened man without means of resistance, the gravitational pull of the Iranian axis is irresistible.
Sami Gemayel, a Maronite Christian, is the son of former president Amin Gemayel, brother of assassinated MP Pierre Gemayel, and nephew of assassinated former president-elect Bachir Gemayel. As a strong Lebanese nationalist, he is a staunch critic of Hezballah. Consequently, Gemayel objected vehemently to PM Hariri's u-turn on the STL, going on to accuse Hezballah of collaborating against Lebanon's interests. Nasrallah responded by posting a grim threat on Hezballah's website -- the Islamic Resistance Forum -- in which he denounced the Christian leader as an Israeli spy and called for his "crucifixion on a pole in the Pride and Dignity Square in Beirut".
Hezballah's Christian allies
At the time of the 2005 elections, around 70 percent of Lebanon's Christians supported the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of General (retired) Michel Aoun. On 6 February 2006, Aoun signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" (MOU) with Hezballah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a ceremony in Mar Mikhail Church, just a few blocks from Hezballah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. Doubtless Hezballah was seeking to secure Christian allies who could support their causes in parliament. Nasrallah may have even been betting that the March 8 opposition could ride to power on the FPM's coat-tails. Meanwhile, the highly ambitious Aoun had his eyes on the presidency (reserved for a Christian) and was doubtless betting (as were many Christians) he could secure political power, liberty and security for Christians through a pact/covenant with the toughest boys on the block.
Back in June 2006, after I wrote a piece entitled "Lebanon Falls" in which I was critical of Hezballah's May 2008 violent seizure of Beirut, I was chided by some well known Lebanese evangelicals who accused me of misrepresenting Hezballah. After commenting that they and virtually all Lebanese Christians shared Hezballah's anti-Israel stance, they insisted that Hezballah was most definitely not anti-Semitic, not anti-Christian, and not a terrorist organisation. On the contrary, they told me, Hezballah was in fact an ally in the quest for religious liberty, political power and equality, citing the MOU as "proof".
I said at the time, and still maintain today, that this alliance with Hezballah will be for Christians nothing other than a "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15-22).
By the time of the June 2009 elections, suspicion was simmering throughout the Christian heartland north of Beirut where Hezballah's establishment of military outposts was causing alarm. Consequently, a significant number of Christians deserted Aoun on polling day, and Aoun could not deliver to Hezballah the numbers he had projected.
Today, reports and movements on the ground suggest that Hezballah is preparing to stage a coup and co-opt its Christian allies to fight its Christian opponents.
Elias Youssef Bejjani reports: "Well-informed Saudi sources have confirmed to the 'Beirut Observer' that . . . information became available to them indicating that an imminent Hezbollah coup is in on the horizon." According to reports, Hezballah's strategy will be similar to that enacted in the May 2008 blitzkrieg, in that militants will simultaneously take control of roads, media and state institutions, and besiege the homes of government officials, effectively placing them under house arrest until they are subdued.
(Of course there will be no need to besiege Walid Jumblatt's home this time, as he switched sides after the June 2009 election in order to align himself with the ascendant force. For along with the fact that Hezballah has proved itself to be the strongest military force in the country, despite losing the election 70 to 58 seats, the Hezballah-led March 8 opposition did win 55 percent of the vote.
See: How will Jumblatt’s split affect March 14?
By Maya Khourchid, NOW Lebanon, 6 August 2009
AND: Walid Jumblatt in Closed-Door Meeting with Druze Sheikhs: 'We Have No Choice But to Coexist with the Shi'ites'. MEMRI June 2009. )
According to reports, Hezballah's Christian allies have conspired with Hezballah to this end, and have served as intermediaries enabling Hezballah to purchase real estate in Christian regions loyal to PM Hariri and the March 14 Alliance. It has been confirmed that Hezballah has deployed some 3,500 armed militiamen along the Mediterranean coast and throughout the Christian regions north of Beirut, including through the cities of Junieh, Tabarja and Batroun. These militants, having taken up residence in chalets and apartments deep inside Christian areas, simply await the green light. Consequently, in the event of conflict, Hezballah will be positioned to besiege the homes of Dr. Samir Geagea (head of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party) and Amin Gemayel (head of the Kataeb Christian Party) and subdue the Christian regions by force. As in May 2008, Hezballah is not expecting any resistance from the clearly partisan Lebanese Army.
Further to this, Hezbollah is reportedly counting on General Michel Aoun's military aid in the Christian regions, where Aoun's role allegedly will be to contain and abort by force any resistance from the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges Parties.
This sets up a conflict scenario where Hezballah's Christian allies (backed by Hezballah of course) will be pitted against Hezballah's Christian opponents in a military conflagration where ultimately the only real winner can be Hezballah. A "covenant with death" indeed.
See also:
Hariri case 'could cause civil war'
Politician warns of sectarian violence if UN-backed tribunal indicts members of Hezbollah movement.
Aljazeera, 24 Sep 2010
Lebanon's hour
of reckoning
Claude Salhani, Khaleej Times, 25 September 2010
Syria, Saudi seek to calm tensions in Lebanon
By Rita Daou (AFP), 24 Sept2010
Fear and Loathing in the Levant
By Zvi Mazel for the Jerusalem Post, 21 Sept 2010.
Hezbollah's looming Coup Scenario
Elias Youssef Bejjani, International Analyst Network, 24 Sep 2010
Geagea accuses rivals of plotting 'coup' over STL
FPM raps LF chief’s ‘isolationist policy’
By Wassim Mroueh, Daily Star, 27 September 2010
Hizbullah reasserts right to defend itself against 'politicized' STL
By Elias Sakr, Daily Star, 27 September 2010
Showing posts with label covenant with death. Show all posts
Showing posts with label covenant with death. Show all posts
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
SPLM - NCP alliance: a "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15)
As was expected, the Arab, Islamist, dictatorial and genocidal regime of Omar al-Bashir won Sudan's totally compromised April elections.
Omar al-Bashir won 68 per cent of the presidential votes, while candidates belonging to al-Bashir's party, National Congress Party (NCP, formerly the National Islamic Front), won the majority of seats in the National Assembly as well as governorships in 13 of the North's 14 states.
See: Dream election result for Sudan's President Bashir
By James Copnall, BBC News, 27 April 2010
The southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM, a political opposition movement based in the South) retains control of Southern Sudan, having won 93 percent of the vote in the South. SPLM leader Salva Kiir, a former rebel army commander, was confirmed as leader of the South with 92.99 per cent of the Southern vote. He will be sworn in as Sudan's Vice President on 21 May.
According to the Financial Times, the National Consensus' presidential candidate, Yasir Arman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), picked up 21.7 per cent of the vote, in spite of his having pulled out of the elections, allegedly in protest over electoral fraud. Who's to say what could have been achieved had the opposition stayed united?
(In the days prior to the elections, the SPLM betrayed and abandoned the National Consensus alliance of opposition parties to renew its coalition with al-Bashir's NCP. The deal involved the SPLM guaranteeing al-Bashir the presidency in exchange for al-Bashir guaranteeing the Southern Self-Determination Referendum. See my blog-post of 8 April 2010 entitled, Sudan's elections: already totally compromised. )
Western powers, including the US, while acknowledging the election was flawed, are accepting the results as legitimate, citing progress in the "process of democratisation". (In reality, the only "progress" that has been made has been in the art of cheating.)
See: Sudan Votes: Responding to an Electoral Travesty
Eric Reeves, 20 April 2010
The SPLM thinks it can guarantee South Sudan -- home to 80 percent of Sudan's oil -- a smooth secession by empowering, and entering into an alliance with, the lying, treacherous, oil-dependent NCP of Omar al-Bashir. What a travesty!
For background and analysis on the Khartoum-SPLM alliance, see: Southern Sudan: on the path to war By Elizabeth Kendal, 3 Oct 2007
In an article entitled, "How political prostitution might cost South Sudanese their hard-earned freedom", New Sudan Vision's John Penn de Ngong decries the fact that Khartoum has once again been able to use promises and inducements to divide not only the oppositional National Consensus, but the SPLM itself.
Further to this, according to Penn de Ngong, the South's "neighbours who once were our symphasizers have started stabbing our backs". Both Chad's President Idris Derby and Eritrea's President Isaias Aferwoki have now expressed opposition to Southern secession. Furthermore, Penn de Ngong reports that IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), the UN and the AU (African Union) have likewise expressed reservations about Southern secession. (Egypt has never supported Southern secession on account of concerns over the possible impact on Nile water supply.)
"Why," asked Penn de Ngong, "are Kenyans, Ugandans, Congolese, etc. shifting their border posts deeper into Southern Sudan this time than last time? Why the military confrontation at our borders of Nadapal (Kenya), Moyo (Uganda), Bazi (Congo DR)? Now with the discovery of oil and other minerals in our land (South), be afraid, be very afraid! Or else be prepared, be very ready!"
In an article entitled, Many Sudans yet to come, in the 22 - 28 April 2010 issue of Al-Ahram (Cairo), reporter Ali Belail interviews Mansour Khaled, a member of the Political Bureau of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and former advisor to the Sudanese Presidency; and Mubarak Al-Fadil Al-Mahdi, a former interior minister and the leader of the Reform and Renewal faction of the Umma Party, one of the opposition parties that boycotted the elections; and questions whether Sudan's elections mark a step forward.
According to Mansour Khaled, the last few decades could well be like a honeymoon compared to what could happen to Sudan in the next few years.
Belail reports that tensions are high and that while there are several issues that could trigger anger and conflict, "oil is perhaps the most potent factor". As Belail notes: "almost 80 per cent of oil is produced south of what would be the border between the two countries".
According to Mubarak Al-Fadil Al-Mahdi, revenue from oil represents nearly 95 per cent of Sudan's total revenue. "Oil has become the livelihood of this government," he says, "and they got used to lavish spending."
Al-Mahdi's fear is that because the regime in Khartoum has neglected the economy, he cannot see them willingly relinquishing their lifeblood. "Our information is that the National Congress Party [NCP] will not let go of the oil," says Al-Mahdi. He predicts that the government will not allow the south to separate. Rather, the regime will "stall as it has done before so that the referendum is not carried out".
Al-Ahram notes that such stalling could trigger a unilateral declaration of independence from the South, which would inevitably trigger a return to armed conflict. (For other scenarios see: Khartoum's strategic assault on Southern Self-Determination Referendum, By Eric Reeves, 26 August 2009 )
"Anyway," states Al-Mahdi, "there is going to be a confrontation between the south and the north again . . . back to the war." And, according to Al-Mahdi, if and when war does resume, Sudan -- with its heavily armed, poverty-stricken population -- risks becoming another Somalia.
"There were mistakes done by the elite," says Al-Mahdi. "They should have seen that Sudan was multi-coloured, multi-ethnic, multi-religious. Sudan should be taken back to the drawing board -- a civil state that recognises multiplicity. This is the only way if you want to keep Sudan together."
Indeed, that was exactly what the late Dr John Garang (SPLM war-time leader) envisioned. But, as Mansour Khaled notes: "The ruling elite in the north do not accept diversity."
There will certainly be war in Sudan -- only now, instead of being a war between a discredited and desperate regime in Khartoum and a united, encircling opposition fighting for a united, secular, democratic Sudan, it will be war between an empowered, enriched, confident Khartoum and disparate, disillusioned, embittered and divided minority peoples each fighting for whatever they can manage to get for themselves.
There will be a massive war for control of the oil fields presently situated on the southern side of the North-South border.
The SPLM's alliance with the NCP is nothing other than a "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15). May God have mercy on the Church in Sudan.
Omar al-Bashir won 68 per cent of the presidential votes, while candidates belonging to al-Bashir's party, National Congress Party (NCP, formerly the National Islamic Front), won the majority of seats in the National Assembly as well as governorships in 13 of the North's 14 states.
See: Dream election result for Sudan's President Bashir
By James Copnall, BBC News, 27 April 2010
The southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM, a political opposition movement based in the South) retains control of Southern Sudan, having won 93 percent of the vote in the South. SPLM leader Salva Kiir, a former rebel army commander, was confirmed as leader of the South with 92.99 per cent of the Southern vote. He will be sworn in as Sudan's Vice President on 21 May.
According to the Financial Times, the National Consensus' presidential candidate, Yasir Arman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), picked up 21.7 per cent of the vote, in spite of his having pulled out of the elections, allegedly in protest over electoral fraud. Who's to say what could have been achieved had the opposition stayed united?
(In the days prior to the elections, the SPLM betrayed and abandoned the National Consensus alliance of opposition parties to renew its coalition with al-Bashir's NCP. The deal involved the SPLM guaranteeing al-Bashir the presidency in exchange for al-Bashir guaranteeing the Southern Self-Determination Referendum. See my blog-post of 8 April 2010 entitled, Sudan's elections: already totally compromised. )
Western powers, including the US, while acknowledging the election was flawed, are accepting the results as legitimate, citing progress in the "process of democratisation". (In reality, the only "progress" that has been made has been in the art of cheating.)
See: Sudan Votes: Responding to an Electoral Travesty
Eric Reeves, 20 April 2010
The SPLM thinks it can guarantee South Sudan -- home to 80 percent of Sudan's oil -- a smooth secession by empowering, and entering into an alliance with, the lying, treacherous, oil-dependent NCP of Omar al-Bashir. What a travesty!
For background and analysis on the Khartoum-SPLM alliance, see: Southern Sudan: on the path to war By Elizabeth Kendal, 3 Oct 2007
In an article entitled, "How political prostitution might cost South Sudanese their hard-earned freedom", New Sudan Vision's John Penn de Ngong decries the fact that Khartoum has once again been able to use promises and inducements to divide not only the oppositional National Consensus, but the SPLM itself.
Further to this, according to Penn de Ngong, the South's "neighbours who once were our symphasizers have started stabbing our backs". Both Chad's President Idris Derby and Eritrea's President Isaias Aferwoki have now expressed opposition to Southern secession. Furthermore, Penn de Ngong reports that IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), the UN and the AU (African Union) have likewise expressed reservations about Southern secession. (Egypt has never supported Southern secession on account of concerns over the possible impact on Nile water supply.)
"Why," asked Penn de Ngong, "are Kenyans, Ugandans, Congolese, etc. shifting their border posts deeper into Southern Sudan this time than last time? Why the military confrontation at our borders of Nadapal (Kenya), Moyo (Uganda), Bazi (Congo DR)? Now with the discovery of oil and other minerals in our land (South), be afraid, be very afraid! Or else be prepared, be very ready!"
In an article entitled, Many Sudans yet to come, in the 22 - 28 April 2010 issue of Al-Ahram (Cairo), reporter Ali Belail interviews Mansour Khaled, a member of the Political Bureau of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and former advisor to the Sudanese Presidency; and Mubarak Al-Fadil Al-Mahdi, a former interior minister and the leader of the Reform and Renewal faction of the Umma Party, one of the opposition parties that boycotted the elections; and questions whether Sudan's elections mark a step forward.
According to Mansour Khaled, the last few decades could well be like a honeymoon compared to what could happen to Sudan in the next few years.
Belail reports that tensions are high and that while there are several issues that could trigger anger and conflict, "oil is perhaps the most potent factor". As Belail notes: "almost 80 per cent of oil is produced south of what would be the border between the two countries".
According to Mubarak Al-Fadil Al-Mahdi, revenue from oil represents nearly 95 per cent of Sudan's total revenue. "Oil has become the livelihood of this government," he says, "and they got used to lavish spending."
Al-Mahdi's fear is that because the regime in Khartoum has neglected the economy, he cannot see them willingly relinquishing their lifeblood. "Our information is that the National Congress Party [NCP] will not let go of the oil," says Al-Mahdi. He predicts that the government will not allow the south to separate. Rather, the regime will "stall as it has done before so that the referendum is not carried out".
Al-Ahram notes that such stalling could trigger a unilateral declaration of independence from the South, which would inevitably trigger a return to armed conflict. (For other scenarios see: Khartoum's strategic assault on Southern Self-Determination Referendum, By Eric Reeves, 26 August 2009 )
"Anyway," states Al-Mahdi, "there is going to be a confrontation between the south and the north again . . . back to the war." And, according to Al-Mahdi, if and when war does resume, Sudan -- with its heavily armed, poverty-stricken population -- risks becoming another Somalia.
"There were mistakes done by the elite," says Al-Mahdi. "They should have seen that Sudan was multi-coloured, multi-ethnic, multi-religious. Sudan should be taken back to the drawing board -- a civil state that recognises multiplicity. This is the only way if you want to keep Sudan together."
Indeed, that was exactly what the late Dr John Garang (SPLM war-time leader) envisioned. But, as Mansour Khaled notes: "The ruling elite in the north do not accept diversity."
There will certainly be war in Sudan -- only now, instead of being a war between a discredited and desperate regime in Khartoum and a united, encircling opposition fighting for a united, secular, democratic Sudan, it will be war between an empowered, enriched, confident Khartoum and disparate, disillusioned, embittered and divided minority peoples each fighting for whatever they can manage to get for themselves.
There will be a massive war for control of the oil fields presently situated on the southern side of the North-South border.
The SPLM's alliance with the NCP is nothing other than a "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15). May God have mercy on the Church in Sudan.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
PHILIPPINES: UPDATE ON GOV-MILF PEACE DEAL
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
PHILIPPINES: GOVERNMENT TO SIGN DEAL WITH MILF
Date: Thursday 31 July 2008
Subj: Philippines: Government to sign deal with MILF.
To: World Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
From: WEA RLC Principal Researcher and Writer, Elizabeth Kendal
The provincial government of North Cotabato, a predominantly Christian province of Mindanao, Southern Philippines, has petitioned the Supreme Court to issue a Temporary Restraining Order to stop the Philippine government signing a secret deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on 5 August that would expand the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and give the Muslim entity all the elements of a state. MILF rejects accusations that the deal is secret, saying that the details will be released as soon as the deal is signed.
The expanded Muslim area -- which will be called the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity -- will not be under the jurisdiction of the Philippine government and is set to incorporate some 712 villages (subject to plebiscite) across swaths of North Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay and Palawan as well as the cities of Cotabato and Isabela, the capital of Basilan island.
North Cotabato Governor Jesus Sacdalan and Vice Governor Emmanuel Pinol want the court to compel government negotiators, particularly presidential peace adviser Hermogenes Esperon, to release details of the agreement for consultation before it is signed. (Link 1)
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On Thursday 24 July, representatives from the Government of the Republic of Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to finalise a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) on Ancestral Domain and set a date for its official signing.
Despite the breakthrough that had been made on 16 July, the negotiations broke down and MILF walked out. But the government negotiators drew the rebels back to the table and at 8:15pm on Sunday 27 July GPR chief negotiator Rodolfo Garcia and his MILF counterpart, Mohagher Iqbal, signed a joint communique settling the issue of ancestral domain. Ancestral domain -- the final and most contentious aspect of the Tripoli Agreement of 2001 -- has been in the agenda of GRP-MILF Peace Talks since December 2004.
Failing a Supreme Court intervention, the Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) on Ancestral Domain will be formally signed in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday 5 August. Theoretically this should pave the way for a Comprehensive Compact Agreement (CCA) between the GRP and MILF. However the path between the MoA and a future CCA is fraught with obstacles that could themselves be triggers for conflict.
In January 2008 the Philippines' Department of Justice (DOJ) warned that some provisions of the draft MoA were unconstitutional and threatened the sovereignty of the Philippines. (Link 2)
Emmanuel Pinol, the vice governor of North Cotabato province, recently warned that if the MoA is signed, "There will be chaos and it will be bloody." (Link 3)
"BREAKTHROUGH" ON ANCESTRAL DOMAIN
The Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) was first established in 1990 pursuant to a constitutional mandate to provide for an autonomous area in Muslim Mindanao Southern Philippines. In a 1989 plebiscite held in thirteen provinces and nine cities of Southern Philippines, only four provinces -- Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi -- elected to be part of the new province of ARMM. Cotabato City was designated the capital.
In 2001 a law was passed to enable the expansion of the ARMM subject once again to plebiscite. Only Marawi City and Basilan -- but not its capital, Isabela City -- elected to be integrated with the ARMM. Understandably, Christian dominated provinces have repeatedly rejected incorporation into the ARMM.
MILF has long demanded that some 1,000 barangays (villages) in Central Mindanao be added to the ARMM and that this not be subject to plebiscite. The breakthrough in negotiations came on 16 July when the government agreed to adding 712 barangays, subject to plebiscite, to the Muslim entity in exchange for MILF dropping the word "freedom" from the draft MoA, supposedly to indicate a rejection of separatism.
MILF agreed to stay silent on "freedom" after talking with Datuk Othman Abd. Razak, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Malaysia, who reminded them that all the previous documents, including the General Framework of Intent signed on 27 August 1998 and the Tripoli Agreement of 2001, contained the word "freedom".
As the Philippine Daily Inquirer notes: "The insistence by the MILF Panel on the inclusion of the phrase 'non derogation of prior agreements' more than makes up for the silence on 'freedom' because this binds both parties to all previous agreements in which freedom is cited as a major principle." (Link 4)
The GRP's insistence that all prospective new territory be subject to plebiscite has also long been a sticking point for MILF. Past plebiscites have not worked in MILF's favour. Initially the GRP had insisted that a comprehensive peace deal be signed before the plebiscites were held. The compromise agreement dictates that plebiscites will be held in the 712 villages within 12 months of the signing of the MoA.
Another sticking point has been the GRP's insistence that it work within the "constitutional process". This has been such an obstacle that MILF demanded the government implement the MoA first and deal with the legal and political hurdles later. Amazingly, government negotiators appear to be agreeing to do just that. Hermogenes Esperon, a peace adviser to President Arroyo told reporters after the 16 July "breakthrough" in negotiations, "The final political solution will still be negotiated, and, if needed, we will amend the constitution to reflect what was agreed upon with the rebels." (Link 5)
"BALKANISING" THE PHILIPPINES?
In January 2008 the Philippines' Department of Justice issued a five-page memorandum to the government peace panel warning that a draft MoA on ancestral domain would result in a separate government for the separatists. Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez warned that not only do some provisions in the draft agreement violate the 1987 Constitution, they threaten to dismember the nation. (Link 2)
The MoA recognises the Bangsamoro people as the natives of Mindanao "distinct from the rest of the national communities". Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez warned that this provision "suggests that the Bangsamoro people are not Filipinos."
The MoA also grants the Bangsamoro people their own "distinct territory" (Bangsamoro Territory) and "government" (the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity) along with international recognition. The Bangsamoro Territory will "not form part of the public domain" -- that is, it is "not within the jurisdiction of the Philippine government". As Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez pointed out in January, this is "tantamount to the surrender of a part of the territory and sovereignty of the Republic of the Philippines".
Justice Secretary Gonzalez, highlighting the necessity of "constitutional process", also warned that this entity cannot be given juridical personality in the absence of an enabling law passed by Congress. However, according to a 30 July 2008 article entitled "Transition gov't seen for Muslims" in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, MILF political affairs chief Ghadzali Jaafar says that the Comprehensive Compact Agreement (CCA) will contain details of how the BJE would be governed, i.e. "who will run it". According to Jaafar, once the CCA is signed "a transition government will immediately take effect". (Link 6)
TRIGGERS FOR CONFLICT
The Department of Justice is not the only place where anxiety is simmering. There is also considerable anxiety in Christian communities in the Southern Philippines. They fear that the MoA may actually trigger unrest and even the displacement, dispossession and persecution of Christians.
North Cotabato vice governor Emmanuel Pinol told the South China Morning Post (21 July, link 3) that some Muslims in his province who had simply abandoned their lands or sold them during the Mindanao conflict in the 1970s were now returning and demanding their land back. He anticipates bloodshed and chaos will follow the signing of the MoA.
Furthermore, analysts such Fr. Eliseo Mercado, a former Chairman of the government's peace panel that negotiates with MILF, and Camilo Montesa, a lawyer and policy adviser of the Cotabato-based think-tank the Institute for Autonomy and Governance (IAG), have warned that the MoA threatens to open the door to a MILF declaration of independence.
According to ABS-CBN news, Fr Mercado said that if the Arroyo government fails to implement the ancestral domain accord [i.e. by failing to secure a congressional mandate to amend the constitution] then MILF can claim the moral high ground and declare independence while accusing the government of negotiating in bad faith. "This is the first time that I've seen a document as such", said Fr Mercado. "You have all the elements of a state. That entitles the Bangsamoro to a self-declaration [of independence]. Because it's all there: you've been recognised, you have territory, you have self-determination, your ancestral domain is your birthright, it's not part of the public domain." (Link 7)
There is also the likelihood that the MoA will lead to division along ethnic and religious lines in mixed areas.
In January, Mayor Celso Lobregat of Zamboanga City reiterated to a peace advocacy forum his position that Zamboanga City (which is around 75 percent Christian, mostly Catholic) be excluded from the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) or any proposed Bangsamoro homeland. According to one report, "His stand was directly opposed to the popular clamour of the Bangsamoro residents of Zamboanga City which the Bangsamoro participants during the peace advocacy forum have openly advocated. They presented to the MILF Peace Panel members a position paper/petition for the inclusion of the Bangsamoro dominated Barangays before the end of the forum."
Hadji Abdulla U Camlian spoke to the forum of the historical role played by the Bangsamoro people of Zamboanga City in the history of the Mindanao region and the role they have to play in the current peace talks. According to the report: "He recalled the historical fact that Zamboanga is home to the Sama-Bangingi Bangsamoros and other Islamised Moros since time immemorial. The arrival of migrant-settlers from the Visayas and Luzon has altered the demography of the City. He therefore urged his fellow Sama to unite in order to restore the Bangsamoro hegemony in the City." (Link 8)
Furthermore, a prospective plebiscite on status can of itself be incentive for violent intimidation and even ethnic cleansing.
-------------------------------
It remains to be seen whether a land-for-peace deal can bring peace and prosperity to the Southern Philippines. President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo seems to believe it will. But why should creating a de facto Muslim state -- the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) -- bring peace and prosperity to the Southern Philippines when after 18 years the establishment of the ARMM has brought neither?
Will the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity eventually employ Sharia Law? Or maybe a Malaysia-style system where Islamic courts decide all matters pertaining to Islam? This would be a profoundly regressive move, one the BJE's excited prospective Muslim citizens may profoundly regret, especially as radicalisation and its consequential Talibanisation spread unhindered, challenging rights long taken for granted -- rights guaranteed in the Philippine Constitution.
Recently on Basilan Island, where 96,000 Catholics form 30 percent of the population, Christians were issued with threatening letters from "mujahidins". They contained the classic Islamic ultimatum to convert to Islam, submit and pay Islamic jizya (protection money) or face violence. (Further details: see link 9)
Concerning this, the Catholic Explorer reports that in Manila on 21 July, Hamid Barra, the Muslim convener of the Bishops-Ulama Conference and an expert on Islamic law, explained that non-Muslims who are protected by an Islamic government are required to pay jizya, which, he says, the state uses to support the poor and the needy. (Actually jizya is little more than protection money to secure protection from Islamic jihad, and to compensate for the fact that non-Muslims cannot serve in a Muslim Army.) Barra added that in a non-Islamic country like the Philippines, "there is no such payment required of non-Muslims". (Link 10)
By his own testimony, Hamid Barra would have to agree that extracting jizya from Christians in a de facto Muslim state such as the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity would be quite legitimate.
It is difficult to know whether the MoA will lead to the Balkanisation of the Philippines (a tearing apart along ethnic-religious lines), or to the headache of yet another Muslim FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area, as in the "tribal bad lands" of north western Pakistan's FATA).
Looks to me more like "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15).
Elizabeth Kendal
Links
1) North Cotabato execs ask SC to stop GRP-MILF peace signing
By Leila Salaverria, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 30 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/regions/view/20080730-151503/North-Cotabato-execs-ask-SC-to-stop-GRP-MILF-peace-signing
2) Ancestral Domain Claims violate 1987 Constitution -- DOJ
By Jomar Canlas, 18 January 2008
http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2008/jan/18/yehey/top_stories/20080118top4.html
See also:
What is the GRP-MILF agreement on ancestral domain?
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryID=126194
3) Christians fear Muslim land grab after deal with Manila, leaders says.
Raissa Robles in Manila, 21 July 2008
South China Morning Post (subscription)
4) AFP sees peace, clergy get threats
By Kristine L. Alave, Alcuin Papa
Philippine Daily Inquirer 20 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view_article.php?article_id=149521
5) Philippines Muslim area to expand. 17 July 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7512401.stm
6) Transition gov't seen for Muslims
By Charlie Senase, Edwin Fernandez, Nash Maulana, Jeoffrey Maitem
Mindanao Bureau, 30 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/regions/view/20080730-151502/Transition-govt-seen-for-Muslims
7) Ancestral domain accord opens door to MILF declaration of independence: analysts
By Isagani de Castro Jr. 24 July 2008
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=126218
8) Peace Advocacy Forum held in Zamboanga City. 9 January 2008
http://moroland.net/2008/01/09/peace-advocacy-forum-held-in-zamboanga-city%20/
9) Southern Philippines: Terror on Basilan Island
Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | No. 488 | Wed 23 July 2008
http://www.worldevangelicals.org/news/view.htm?id=1971
ALSO
Basilan Catholics get threats to convert. 19 July 2008
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/107980/Basilan-Catholics-get-threats-to-convert
10) Philippine bishop reports receiving threat to convert to Islam
By Catholic News Service. 22 July 2008
http://www.catholicexplorer.com/explore4325/nationworld/philippine-bishop-reports-receiving-threat-to-conv.shtml
Subj: Philippines: Government to sign deal with MILF.
To: World Evangelical Alliance Religious Liberty News & Analysis
From: WEA RLC Principal Researcher and Writer, Elizabeth Kendal
The provincial government of North Cotabato, a predominantly Christian province of Mindanao, Southern Philippines, has petitioned the Supreme Court to issue a Temporary Restraining Order to stop the Philippine government signing a secret deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on 5 August that would expand the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and give the Muslim entity all the elements of a state. MILF rejects accusations that the deal is secret, saying that the details will be released as soon as the deal is signed.
The expanded Muslim area -- which will be called the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity -- will not be under the jurisdiction of the Philippine government and is set to incorporate some 712 villages (subject to plebiscite) across swaths of North Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay and Palawan as well as the cities of Cotabato and Isabela, the capital of Basilan island.
North Cotabato Governor Jesus Sacdalan and Vice Governor Emmanuel Pinol want the court to compel government negotiators, particularly presidential peace adviser Hermogenes Esperon, to release details of the agreement for consultation before it is signed. (Link 1)
----------------------------------
On Thursday 24 July, representatives from the Government of the Republic of Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to finalise a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) on Ancestral Domain and set a date for its official signing.
Despite the breakthrough that had been made on 16 July, the negotiations broke down and MILF walked out. But the government negotiators drew the rebels back to the table and at 8:15pm on Sunday 27 July GPR chief negotiator Rodolfo Garcia and his MILF counterpart, Mohagher Iqbal, signed a joint communique settling the issue of ancestral domain. Ancestral domain -- the final and most contentious aspect of the Tripoli Agreement of 2001 -- has been in the agenda of GRP-MILF Peace Talks since December 2004.
Failing a Supreme Court intervention, the Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) on Ancestral Domain will be formally signed in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday 5 August. Theoretically this should pave the way for a Comprehensive Compact Agreement (CCA) between the GRP and MILF. However the path between the MoA and a future CCA is fraught with obstacles that could themselves be triggers for conflict.
In January 2008 the Philippines' Department of Justice (DOJ) warned that some provisions of the draft MoA were unconstitutional and threatened the sovereignty of the Philippines. (Link 2)
Emmanuel Pinol, the vice governor of North Cotabato province, recently warned that if the MoA is signed, "There will be chaos and it will be bloody." (Link 3)
"BREAKTHROUGH" ON ANCESTRAL DOMAIN
The Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) was first established in 1990 pursuant to a constitutional mandate to provide for an autonomous area in Muslim Mindanao Southern Philippines. In a 1989 plebiscite held in thirteen provinces and nine cities of Southern Philippines, only four provinces -- Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi -- elected to be part of the new province of ARMM. Cotabato City was designated the capital.
In 2001 a law was passed to enable the expansion of the ARMM subject once again to plebiscite. Only Marawi City and Basilan -- but not its capital, Isabela City -- elected to be integrated with the ARMM. Understandably, Christian dominated provinces have repeatedly rejected incorporation into the ARMM.
MILF has long demanded that some 1,000 barangays (villages) in Central Mindanao be added to the ARMM and that this not be subject to plebiscite. The breakthrough in negotiations came on 16 July when the government agreed to adding 712 barangays, subject to plebiscite, to the Muslim entity in exchange for MILF dropping the word "freedom" from the draft MoA, supposedly to indicate a rejection of separatism.
MILF agreed to stay silent on "freedom" after talking with Datuk Othman Abd. Razak, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Malaysia, who reminded them that all the previous documents, including the General Framework of Intent signed on 27 August 1998 and the Tripoli Agreement of 2001, contained the word "freedom".
As the Philippine Daily Inquirer notes: "The insistence by the MILF Panel on the inclusion of the phrase 'non derogation of prior agreements' more than makes up for the silence on 'freedom' because this binds both parties to all previous agreements in which freedom is cited as a major principle." (Link 4)
The GRP's insistence that all prospective new territory be subject to plebiscite has also long been a sticking point for MILF. Past plebiscites have not worked in MILF's favour. Initially the GRP had insisted that a comprehensive peace deal be signed before the plebiscites were held. The compromise agreement dictates that plebiscites will be held in the 712 villages within 12 months of the signing of the MoA.
Another sticking point has been the GRP's insistence that it work within the "constitutional process". This has been such an obstacle that MILF demanded the government implement the MoA first and deal with the legal and political hurdles later. Amazingly, government negotiators appear to be agreeing to do just that. Hermogenes Esperon, a peace adviser to President Arroyo told reporters after the 16 July "breakthrough" in negotiations, "The final political solution will still be negotiated, and, if needed, we will amend the constitution to reflect what was agreed upon with the rebels." (Link 5)
"BALKANISING" THE PHILIPPINES?
In January 2008 the Philippines' Department of Justice issued a five-page memorandum to the government peace panel warning that a draft MoA on ancestral domain would result in a separate government for the separatists. Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez warned that not only do some provisions in the draft agreement violate the 1987 Constitution, they threaten to dismember the nation. (Link 2)
The MoA recognises the Bangsamoro people as the natives of Mindanao "distinct from the rest of the national communities". Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez warned that this provision "suggests that the Bangsamoro people are not Filipinos."
The MoA also grants the Bangsamoro people their own "distinct territory" (Bangsamoro Territory) and "government" (the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity) along with international recognition. The Bangsamoro Territory will "not form part of the public domain" -- that is, it is "not within the jurisdiction of the Philippine government". As Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez pointed out in January, this is "tantamount to the surrender of a part of the territory and sovereignty of the Republic of the Philippines".
Justice Secretary Gonzalez, highlighting the necessity of "constitutional process", also warned that this entity cannot be given juridical personality in the absence of an enabling law passed by Congress. However, according to a 30 July 2008 article entitled "Transition gov't seen for Muslims" in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, MILF political affairs chief Ghadzali Jaafar says that the Comprehensive Compact Agreement (CCA) will contain details of how the BJE would be governed, i.e. "who will run it". According to Jaafar, once the CCA is signed "a transition government will immediately take effect". (Link 6)
TRIGGERS FOR CONFLICT
The Department of Justice is not the only place where anxiety is simmering. There is also considerable anxiety in Christian communities in the Southern Philippines. They fear that the MoA may actually trigger unrest and even the displacement, dispossession and persecution of Christians.
North Cotabato vice governor Emmanuel Pinol told the South China Morning Post (21 July, link 3) that some Muslims in his province who had simply abandoned their lands or sold them during the Mindanao conflict in the 1970s were now returning and demanding their land back. He anticipates bloodshed and chaos will follow the signing of the MoA.
Furthermore, analysts such Fr. Eliseo Mercado, a former Chairman of the government's peace panel that negotiates with MILF, and Camilo Montesa, a lawyer and policy adviser of the Cotabato-based think-tank the Institute for Autonomy and Governance (IAG), have warned that the MoA threatens to open the door to a MILF declaration of independence.
According to ABS-CBN news, Fr Mercado said that if the Arroyo government fails to implement the ancestral domain accord [i.e. by failing to secure a congressional mandate to amend the constitution] then MILF can claim the moral high ground and declare independence while accusing the government of negotiating in bad faith. "This is the first time that I've seen a document as such", said Fr Mercado. "You have all the elements of a state. That entitles the Bangsamoro to a self-declaration [of independence]. Because it's all there: you've been recognised, you have territory, you have self-determination, your ancestral domain is your birthright, it's not part of the public domain." (Link 7)
There is also the likelihood that the MoA will lead to division along ethnic and religious lines in mixed areas.
In January, Mayor Celso Lobregat of Zamboanga City reiterated to a peace advocacy forum his position that Zamboanga City (which is around 75 percent Christian, mostly Catholic) be excluded from the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) or any proposed Bangsamoro homeland. According to one report, "His stand was directly opposed to the popular clamour of the Bangsamoro residents of Zamboanga City which the Bangsamoro participants during the peace advocacy forum have openly advocated. They presented to the MILF Peace Panel members a position paper/petition for the inclusion of the Bangsamoro dominated Barangays before the end of the forum."
Hadji Abdulla U Camlian spoke to the forum of the historical role played by the Bangsamoro people of Zamboanga City in the history of the Mindanao region and the role they have to play in the current peace talks. According to the report: "He recalled the historical fact that Zamboanga is home to the Sama-Bangingi Bangsamoros and other Islamised Moros since time immemorial. The arrival of migrant-settlers from the Visayas and Luzon has altered the demography of the City. He therefore urged his fellow Sama to unite in order to restore the Bangsamoro hegemony in the City." (Link 8)
Furthermore, a prospective plebiscite on status can of itself be incentive for violent intimidation and even ethnic cleansing.
-------------------------------
It remains to be seen whether a land-for-peace deal can bring peace and prosperity to the Southern Philippines. President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo seems to believe it will. But why should creating a de facto Muslim state -- the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) -- bring peace and prosperity to the Southern Philippines when after 18 years the establishment of the ARMM has brought neither?
Will the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity eventually employ Sharia Law? Or maybe a Malaysia-style system where Islamic courts decide all matters pertaining to Islam? This would be a profoundly regressive move, one the BJE's excited prospective Muslim citizens may profoundly regret, especially as radicalisation and its consequential Talibanisation spread unhindered, challenging rights long taken for granted -- rights guaranteed in the Philippine Constitution.
Recently on Basilan Island, where 96,000 Catholics form 30 percent of the population, Christians were issued with threatening letters from "mujahidins". They contained the classic Islamic ultimatum to convert to Islam, submit and pay Islamic jizya (protection money) or face violence. (Further details: see link 9)
Concerning this, the Catholic Explorer reports that in Manila on 21 July, Hamid Barra, the Muslim convener of the Bishops-Ulama Conference and an expert on Islamic law, explained that non-Muslims who are protected by an Islamic government are required to pay jizya, which, he says, the state uses to support the poor and the needy. (Actually jizya is little more than protection money to secure protection from Islamic jihad, and to compensate for the fact that non-Muslims cannot serve in a Muslim Army.) Barra added that in a non-Islamic country like the Philippines, "there is no such payment required of non-Muslims". (Link 10)
By his own testimony, Hamid Barra would have to agree that extracting jizya from Christians in a de facto Muslim state such as the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity would be quite legitimate.
It is difficult to know whether the MoA will lead to the Balkanisation of the Philippines (a tearing apart along ethnic-religious lines), or to the headache of yet another Muslim FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area, as in the "tribal bad lands" of north western Pakistan's FATA).
Looks to me more like "covenant with death" (Isaiah 28:15).
Elizabeth Kendal
Links
1) North Cotabato execs ask SC to stop GRP-MILF peace signing
By Leila Salaverria, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 30 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/regions/view/20080730-151503/North-Cotabato-execs-ask-SC-to-stop-GRP-MILF-peace-signing
2) Ancestral Domain Claims violate 1987 Constitution -- DOJ
By Jomar Canlas, 18 January 2008
http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2008/jan/18/yehey/top_stories/20080118top4.html
See also:
What is the GRP-MILF agreement on ancestral domain?
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryID=126194
3) Christians fear Muslim land grab after deal with Manila, leaders says.
Raissa Robles in Manila, 21 July 2008
South China Morning Post (subscription)
4) AFP sees peace, clergy get threats
By Kristine L. Alave, Alcuin Papa
Philippine Daily Inquirer 20 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view_article.php?article_id=149521
5) Philippines Muslim area to expand. 17 July 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7512401.stm
6) Transition gov't seen for Muslims
By Charlie Senase, Edwin Fernandez, Nash Maulana, Jeoffrey Maitem
Mindanao Bureau, 30 July 2008
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/regions/view/20080730-151502/Transition-govt-seen-for-Muslims
7) Ancestral domain accord opens door to MILF declaration of independence: analysts
By Isagani de Castro Jr. 24 July 2008
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=126218
8) Peace Advocacy Forum held in Zamboanga City. 9 January 2008
http://moroland.net/2008/01/09/peace-advocacy-forum-held-in-zamboanga-city%20/
9) Southern Philippines: Terror on Basilan Island
Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | No. 488 | Wed 23 July 2008
http://www.worldevangelicals.org/news/view.htm?id=1971
ALSO
Basilan Catholics get threats to convert. 19 July 2008
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/107980/Basilan-Catholics-get-threats-to-convert
10) Philippine bishop reports receiving threat to convert to Islam
By Catholic News Service. 22 July 2008
http://www.catholicexplorer.com/explore4325/nationworld/philippine-bishop-reports-receiving-threat-to-conv.shtml